INF Treaty Pullout Could Be Boon for Missile Makers.

• Author: Harper, Jon
• Position: BUDGET MATTERS

The United States' withdrawal from a landmark arms control agreement could open up major opportunities for the defense industry as the Pentagon seeks to counter Russia and China.

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which was brokered in 1987, prohibits the United States and Russia from deploying land-based nuclear or conventional missiles--both ballistic and cruise--with ranges of 500 to 5,500 km. However, Washington is accusing Moscow of cheating.

"Russia has violated the agreement, they've been violating it for many years," President Donald Trump told reporters after a political rally in October. "So we are going to terminate the agreement and we are going to develop the weapons."

U.S. withdrawal from the treaty could be a boon for missile manufacturers, said Todd Harrison, director of the aerospace security project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"For decades, we've been operating within the design constraints imposed by the INF Treaty," he said. "It opens up a whole range of possible design options for missile forces that previously had not been available" in terms of range and flight trajectory.

The price tag for a new arsenal is difficult to estimate, Harrison said.

"The cost of the Pershing II--I think that's as close an analogy as we have right now, but that was a long, long time ago," he said, referring to intermediate range, nuclear-armed ballistic missiles that the United States deployed to Europe in the 1980s.

The Pershing II program cost $692 million for research, development, test and evaluation, and $1.76 billion to procure 247 missiles, according to the Government Accountability Office. A conventional ground-launched cruise missile, the GLCM, that was deployed at that time cost $383 million for RDT&E, and $2.72 billion to procure 442 missiles.

The Pentagon could potentially modify Tomahawk cruise missiles--sea-based weapons that cost about $1.5 million each--to provide an interim intermediate range, ground-based capability, Harrison said.

Harrison said he is not aware of any existing ballistic missile systems that could be modified to have an intermediate range.

"Because you're looking at some new-start programs, I think that there are opportunities for new companies to get into this market," he said. "But we're not talking about revolutionary technologies...