Indianapolis-carmel forecast 2014.

• Author: Anderson, Kyle J.

The Indianapolis-Carmel metropolitan area (1) economy has experienced another weak year of growth along with the rest of the state and country. Gains in output and employment have been modest.

Five Years Later

The financial crisis that began in late 2007 had significant repercussions in Indianapolis as well as everywhere else across the country. It is useful to examine the industries that were most affected by the recession and measure to what extent they have recovered. Table 1 presents the change in number of jobs and real wages over the past five years (from March 31, 2008 to March 31, 2013). Overall, the total number of jobs grew nearly 1 percent and real wages remained flat

TABLE 1: Indianapolis Change in Jobs and Wages, 2008 to 2013 Industry Percent of Total Change in Real Wage Jobs Jobs Change Health Care and 14.7% 18.5% 6.1% Social Services Retail Trade 10.7% 1.6% -0.3% Manufacturing 9.7% -13.8% 5.0% Accommodation and 9.1% 5.9% -1.3% Food Services Administrative and 7.9% 7.5% -1.0% Support Services Educational Services 7.6% 2.9% -5.1% Transportation and 6.4% 6.6% -0.3% Warehousing Professional, 5.4% 6.7% 7.8% Scientific and Technical Public 4.8% -2.0% 7.6% Administration Finance and 4.7% -5.6% 4.8% Insurance Wholesale Trade 4.6% -6.3% 1.0% Construction 4.2% -20.6% 4.5% Other Services 3.2% -0.4% -4.8% Information 2.0% -5.6% 2.2% Real Estate, Rental 1.6% -2.7% 1.6% and Leasing Arts, Entertainment 1.4% 9.0% -17.4% and Recreation Management of 1.3% -6.2% 9.0% Companies Total 0.9% 0.5% Notes: Data are March 31, 2008 to March 31, 2013. Total change in jobs and real wages are weighted averages based on each industry's percent of total jobs. Source: STATS Indiana, using Indiana Department of Workiorce Development data aggregated by the Indiana Business Research Center and author's calculations Digging deeper, we can see the industries that were hit hardest and have yet to recover. Construction jobs are down 20.6 percent from their 2008 levels, while manufacturing and wholesale trade jobs are down 13.8 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively. The health care industry has seen the strongest growth, with the number of jobs increasing by 18.5 percent and wages increasing by 6.1 percent.

Employment and Wages

Slow economic growth still drives the Indianapolis economy. The good news is that unemployment has fallen to 6.9 percent, the lowest mark since 2008. But it is only a few percentage points lower than where it stood in 2012, and the local...