Indianapolis-carmel forecast 2012.

• Author: Anderson, Kyle J.

The Indianapolis-Carmel metropolitan area (1) should continue a slow recovery during 2012, with unemployment declining, incomes rising and a general economic rebound. The Super Bowl in February will bring a nice, but temporary, economic stimulus. However, the recovery will be modest and leave economic growth below historic levels and unemployment above normal levels, even by the end of the year.

Employment and Wages

Over the past 12 months, Indianapolis added 6,100 jobs, (2) a disappointing figure given the high level of unemployment. This poor growth has unemployment above 8 percent. The economy needs to

add about 50,000 jobs to get back to normal employment, something that is likely to take several more years. Not only has the number of employed declined, but the size of the labor force has shrunk as people have stopped looking for work (see Figure 1). Look for an increase of 10,000 to 15,000 jobs during 2012.

There is some good news as wages are higher compared to a year ago. (3) Average wages rose 4.3 percent, with gains across the board except for educational services. Table 1 provides a breakdown of wage change and job growth by industry for the Indianapolis area.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Table 1: Wages and Jobs for Selected Industries in the Indianapolis Metro, 2011 Industry Wages Jobs Average Average Percent of Change Weekly Wage Change Total in Wage since 2010 Number since 2010 Total $906 4.3% 100.0% 1.5% Administrative and $551 4.8% 7.3% 7.9% Support and Waste Management and Remedial Services Real Estate and $832 7.6% 1.7% 3.7% Rental and Leasing Construction $963 4.8% 4.2% 3.2% Health Care and $832 4.4% 14.6% 2.8% Social Services Accommodation and $283 2.9% 8.8% 2.7% Food Services Transportation and $720 3.6% 6.1% 2.6% Warehousing Professional, $1,300 11.8% 5.3% 2.2% Scientific and Technical Services Management of $2,020 14.1% 1.3% 2.2% Companies and Enterprises Other Services $582 -0.2% 3.2% 2.0% (Except Public Administration) Wholesale Trade $1,097 5.3% 4.7% 1.3% Retail Trade $489 5.8% 10.6% 1.2% Finance and $1,535 11.8% 4.9% 0.4% Insurance Educational Services $720 -4.1% 8.1% -0.3% Manufacturing $1,795 5.3% 9.7% -2.2% Information $1,185 8.0% 1.9% -4.4% Note: Data are for the first quarter of each year. Source; STATS Indiana, using Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data Housing and Construction

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