Indianapolis-Carmel forecast 2011.

• Author: Anderson, Kyle J.

The Indianapolis-Carmel metropolitan area (1) should continue to slowly recover over the course of 2011, with unemployment declining, incomes rising and a general economic rebound. However, the recovery will be modest and leave economic growth below historic levels and unemployment above normal levels, even by the end of the year.

Employment (2)

The unemployment rate in the Indianapolis metro is 8.7 percent as of September 2010, about half a percentage point higher than a year ago. To put this number into some perspective, there are more than 53,000 fewer people working now than there were three years ago and 42,500 more unemployed. Figure 1 provides a comparison between the unemployment rate in Indianapolis and Indiana. While Indianapolis has fared better, the gap in the unemployment rate is narrowing.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Modest economic growth in 2011 should lead to the creation of approximately 20,000 new jobs by the end of 2011. This will be enough to lead to a modest decline in the unemployment rate by the end of the year, but it will likely take three to four years before we have a full employment recovery.

Income (3)

Aggregate income for the Indianapolis metro area fell by 0.4 percent over the past year, as a 1.8 percent increase in average wages was not enough to offset a 2.1 percent decline in the number of jobs. Of course, not all industries fared the same during the economic downturn. Table 1 provides a breakdown of the change in wages and number of jobs over the past year.

* TABLE 1: Wages and Jobs for Selected Industries in the Indianapolis Metro, 2009:1 to 2010:1 Average Wages Jobs Industry Weekly Change Percent Change since of since 2009 Total, 2009 2010 Total $869 1.8% 100.0% -2.1% Health Care and Social Services 797 -1.8 14.4 3.4 Administrative and Support and Waste 526 -1.3 6.9 2.1 Management and Remediation Services Educational Services 751 -2.2 8.2 0.5 Public Administration 906 3.7 5.3 0.3 Retail Trade 462 -1.5 10.7 -1.6 Professional, Scientific, and 1,163 0.3 5.3 -1.6 Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services 275 1.9 8.7 -2.8 Finance and Insurance 1,373 12.1 5.0 -3.0 Transportation and Warehousing 695 -1.3 6.1 -3.1 Other Services (Except Public 583 -1.9 3.2 -3.4 Administration) Management of Companies and 1,770 5.4 1.3 -4.3 Enterprises Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 773 -0.8 1.7 -4.5 Wholesale Trade 1,042 -1.9 4.8 -5.3 Information 1,097 1.7 2.0 -6.0 Manufacturing 1,704 9.5 10.1 -6.7 Arts, Entertainment, and...