In Search of a Silver Bullet: Child Welfare's Embrace of Predictive Analytics

• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/jfcj.12086
• Author: Amanda J. Fairchild,Christopher E. Church
• Published date: 01 March 2017
• Date: 01 March 2017

In Search of a Silver Bullet: Child Welfare’s

Embrace of Predictive Analytics

By Christopher E. Church and Amanda J. Fairchild

ABSTRACT

Predictive analytics has shaken up a number of fields, including child welfare.

Predictive analytics refers to the process of applying statistical algorithms to data to

make informed guesses about future events. Although predictive analytics can help

professionals make decisions more accurately, objectively, and quickly, there is a con-

cern that some methods may result in discriminatory practices or consequences for

vulnerable children and families. This paper examines a number of programmatic

and ethical considerations for determining the appropriate role of predictive analytics

in child welfare.

Key words: Child Welfare, Foster Care, Data Analysis, Predictive Analytics, Predictive

Modeling, Child Protection, CPS.

INTRODUCTION

As Josh Gupta-Kagan summarized shortly after the “Rethinking Foster Care”

conference, we may be closer to agreement than we think regarding how to

improve the U.S. foster care system.

1

For example, the foster care system could

Christopher E. Church, J.D., M.S. is the Law & Policy Director for the Children’s Law Center at the

University of South Carolina School of Law. In this role, he manages a small team of researchers and consults

with a number of state child welfare agencies, court improvement programs, non-profit organizations, and

the Children’s Bureau. He holds a Master’s Degree in Mathematics from the University of North Texas and

a Juris Doctor from the Gonzaga University School of Law. He completed his undergraduate studies at Con-

cordia College in Bronxville, NY.

Amanda J. Fairchild, Ph.D. is an AssociateProfessor in the Department of Psychology at the Univer-

sity of South Carolina. Dr. Fairchild’s work centers on developing research methodology that can enhance the

science of prevention. Dr. Fairchild graduated Phi Beta Kappa with a degree in Psychology from the Univer-

sity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.She holds a Master’s Degree in Assessment, Measurement and Statistics

from James Madison University anda PhD in Quantitative Psychologyfrom Arizona State University.

1

Josh Gupta-Kagan, “Rethinking Foster Care” –Are We Closer to Agreement than It Seems?, The NACC

Child Law Blog (May 30, 2016), https://www.naccchildlawblog.org/child-welfare-law/rethinking-foster-ca

re-are-we-closer-to-agreement-than-it-seems

Juvenile and Family Court Journal 68, No. 1

©2017 National Council of Juvenile and Family Court Judges

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