Impact of Focused Deterrence on Lived Experiences With Gangs and Gun Violence: Extending Effects Beyond Officially Recorded Crime

• DOI: 10.1177/08874034211063812
• Author: S. Yaser Samadi,Seyvan Nouri,T. R Kochel
• Date: 01 June 2022
• Published date: 01 June 2022
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/08874034211063812

Criminal Justice Policy Review

2022, Vol. 33(5) 507 –535

© The Author(s) 2021

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/08874034211063812

journals.sagepub.com/home/cjp

Article

Impact of Focused Deterrence

on Lived Experiences With

Gangs and Gun Violence:

Extending Effects Beyond

Officially Recorded Crime

T. R Kochel1, Seyvan Nouri1,

and S. Yaser Samadi1

Abstract

The study evaluates a geographically based focused deterrence (FD) intervention,

extending knowledge about FD impact beyond crime data to also examine residents’

lived experiences with gangs and gun violence via a two-wave household survey.

We employ a quasi-experimental design and utilize time-series analyses, coefficient

difference tests, and mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression. The results show a

significant reduction in shots fired incidents in the target area relative to comparison

areas. Shots fired calls for service trended downward citywide, but the magnitude

was doubled in the target area. Survey data showed substantive declines in the

target area on all six gang and gun violence outcomes, significantly exceeding changes

experienced in comparison areas. We conclude that focusing geographically as

well as on repeat offenders is an effective FD approach, and evaluating community

surveys provides an improved understanding of the community impact.

Keywords

focused deterrence, gun violence, gangs, community impact, quasi-experiment

1Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, USA

Corresponding Author:

T. R Kochel, Criminology and Criminal Justice, Southern Illinois University, MC 4504, 1000 Faner Dr.,

Carbondale, IL 62901, USA.

Email: tkochel@siu.edu

1063812CJPXXX10.1177/08874034211063812Criminal Justice Policy ReviewKochel et al.

research-article2021

508 Criminal Justice Policy Review 33(5)

Gangs and gun violence frequently coexist in communities. From 2007 to 2011, 13% of

homicides in U.S. cities with more than 100,000 population were gang-related, and the

5-year average increased by 35% in 2012 (National Gang Center, 2014). Among larger

cities, 20% of homicides are gang-related (Pyrooz, 2012). Gang membership, even

when concentrated in a small area, has a significant influence on gun assaults in that

community and in communities nearby (Huebner et al., 2020). Scholars have linked

gang membership with a propensity to commit crime (Gordon et al., 2004; Melde &

Esbensen, 2013; Pyrooz et al., 2016; Taylor et al., 2007), especially in high-crime and

socially disadvantaged areas (Bursik, 2002; Coughlin & Venkatesh, 2003; Tita &

Ridgeway, 2007). Gang presence facilitates greater shots fired activity in a neighbor-

hood (Tita & Ridgeway, 2007).

Guns are integral to gangs, used for protection against victimization, to commit

crime, and as symbols of masculinity (Decker & Van Winkle, 1996; Sheley & Wright,

1998; Stretesky & Pogrebin, 2007; Wright & Rossi, 1986). Gang members are as much

as 8 times more likely to carry guns (Lizotte et al., 2000), and gang membership was the

strongest predictor of gun possession and a significant positive predictor of gun use

among juveniles, in a study by Watkins et al. (2008). Youth who have a friend or rela-

tive in a gang are more likely to carry a gun (Luster & Oh, 2001).

Focused deterrence (FD) is an evidence-based approach to reducing gun homicides,

especially gang-related gun homicides. Crime-control benefits often diffuse to nearby

geographic areas and untreated offenders (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering,

and Medicine, 2018). FD, also called pulling levers, is a two-pronged crime prevention

strategy that capitalizes on the group-based nature of gang-related gun violence. FD

increases penalties for repeat gun offenders and their associates who refuse to stop

shooting and provides social services to help offenders leave gangs, stop committing

crime, and become productive members of their community. A meta-analysis of 24

experimental and quasi-experimental FD studies found a significant small to medium

effect of FD on crime (Braga et al., 2018). On the basis of this rigorous research, police

and communities can be confident in the impact of FD on official counts of gun homi-

cides, gun assaults, gunshot wound incidents, gang-homicides, violent crime, and so on

(e.g., Boyle et al., 2010; Braga, 2008; Roman et al., 2019). And, because violent crimes

that involve firearms are more often reported to police than property and disorder

offenses (Hart & Rennison, 2003; Tarling & Morris, 2010), official crime data are con-

sidered a reasonable estimate of the prevalence of gun violence. Absent expensive gun-

fire detection technology, calls for police service and incident data are often the only

available estimates of gun violence.

However, gunfire incidents are underreported, especially in high gun crime neigh-

borhoods (Huebner et al., 2020). In their study comparing reported gunfire incidents to

ShotSpotter data in two large cities, Carr and Doleac (2016) found that only 12% of

gunfire incidents are reported to police. ShotSpotter advertises on their website that

“80% of gunshot incidents are never reported to 911” (www.shotspotter.com). In high-

crime areas, residents’ lack of trust in police contributes to underreporting (Kruger

et al., 2016). Thus, in addition to examining the impact of FD on reported gun crime,

there is utility in examining the impact with alternative data sources.