Imagine This: Legislatures of the Future.

• Position: Brief Article

Harassed, circumvented or diminished? No one knows what legislatures will likely be in 25 years, but here are some possibilities.

What might this future look like? No one knows for sure, of course. But there are three critical uncertainties that will have a profound effect on the legislature of 2025: the use of direct democracy; the level of confidence in state legislatures; and the level of demand for government services. Based on those, there are four possible alternative futures for the legislature.

THE HARASSED LEGISLATURE

The harassed legislature is marked by the high use of direct democracy initiatives. Yet it is a strong legislature that effectively balances the goals of representative and direct democracy. It is able to maintain the confidence of the people as a problem-solving institution. The harassed legislature operates in a very competitive political environment. If it does not meet the public's needs, the public will use technology to go around it via direct democracy. Driven by self-preservation, the harassed legislature will add staff and technology to reach out to the public, identify citizens' needs and attempt to take action to meet those needs. The demand for government services in the states will determine whether legislatures use their power to add to existing ones or to cut back on them. There is stable demand for services delivered through traditional government programs or nonprofit or private sector organizations.

THE CIRCUMVENTED LEGISLATURE

The circumvented legislature is also marked by the high use of direct democracy initiatives. But it is a weak legislature that has lost the confidence of the people as a problem-solving institution. The public has determined that the legislature is not meeting their needs and has seized the opportunity presented by technology to increase the range and scope of...