Identifying countries with security problems.

• Position: Worldview - Brief Article

People who think and act internationally need a way to assess the potential risks of living or investing in a foreign country. How can they tell when a nation is unstable? "Stability is not a single factor, but a complex array of economic conditions, demographic trends, political forces, and more," futurists Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies explained to the World Future Society, Bethesda, Md.

For example, a nation with a large population of unemployed young men and high levels of government corruption may be headed for an unstable future. Indicators of stability include a military that is subject to civilian rule and a high rate of home ownership.

Cetron and Davies analyzed 11 of the most important trends for national security, together with their implications. Among their conclusions were the following:

Technology is driving the future, but the more a nation develops its high-tech industrial base, the more resentment it creates among people in disadvantaged nations. Technologically advanced countries will be targets of terrorism until the developing world adopts...