INCREASED HURRICANE ACTIVITY AHEAD.

• Position: Brief Article

Weather experts have begun making their Atlantic hurricane season predictions. While it is uncertain how far down the alphabet the storms will go, researchers at the University of Missouri-Columbia indicate that the chance to name a storm Nadine, Oscar, or Patty this hurricane season is a good possibility.

According to Anthony Lupo, assistant professor of atmospheric sciences, and Grant Johnston, an undergraduate student in atmospheric sciences, long- and short-term changes in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean have an impact on the occurrence and intensity of Atlantic Ocean hurricanes. The researchers examined the variability of hurricane intensity from 1938 to 1999 using data compiled by Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project Archive. They then compared this data with the occurrence of El Nino and La Nina events and the two phases of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), a 50- to 70-year sea-surface temperature variation.

"The NPO is like a giant, long-lived El Nino," Lupo indicates. "The first phase, NPO1, is characterized by warmer surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific and lower surface...