Hunger to Violence: Explaining the Violent Escalation of Nonviolent Demonstrations

• Author: Daniel Gustafson
• DOI: 10.1177/0022002719890669
• Published date: 01 July 2020
• Date: 01 July 2020
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Hunger to Violence:

Explaining the Violent

Escalation of Nonviolent

Demonstrations

Daniel Gustafson

1

Abstract

Under what conditions do nonviolent demonstrations escalate to violence? I answer

this question using a novel theory of individual impatience in protests that begin

peacefully.Rather than considering protestgroups as unitary actors, I present a theory

of collective action in which a group’sdecision over whether or not to engagein anti-

government violence is the product of individual preferences.Individuals involved in a

nonviolent demonstration use the immediacy of their needs and the sustainability of

collective action to decide whether or not to init iate violence against the state.

Specifically, I hypothesize that the likelihood of violent escalation will increase when

the food price increases and unemployment rate is high or when the event is spon-

taneous. Analysis of a Bayesian multilevel model of 2,405 nonviolent demonstrations

from 1991 to 2017 in Africa and Latin America supports my expectations.

Keywords

nonviolence, protest, escalation, food security

Venezuela has been gripped by political and social unrest since 2010. The socio-

economic crisis began during the end of Hugo Ch´avez’s tenure and continued to

grow under President Nicol´as Maduro with citizens calling for his removal from

1

Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, NC, USA

Corresponding Author:

Daniel Gustafson, Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 451

Hamilton Hall Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA.

Email: gustafson@unc.edu

Journal of Conflict Resolution

2020, Vol. 64(6) 1121-1145

ªThe Author(s) 2019

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DOI: 10.1177/0022002719890669

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office and resulting in a presidential crisis. The primary grievance for Venezuelan

citizens is a lack of access to necessary goods including food, water, medicine, and

hygienic supplies. Indeed, in 2016 alone, consumer prices rose by 800 percent (Pons

2017), and roughly 75 percent of the population lost an average of 19 lb. due to lack

of nutrition (Pestano 2017). Throughout this period, political grievance has mani-

fested itself in the form of massive demonstrations. While these events have mostly

originated as peaceful protests, a large portion have escalated to violent encounters

with Venezuelan security forces (Casey 2017). Scholars have developed countless

theories to explain the evolution of civil conflicts but very few that relate to why

individual events become violent. This type of escalation from nonviolence to vio-

lence during events is relatively common. For example, in my sample of 2,405

peaceful protests, roughly 15 percent escalated to violence. Why do some nonviolent

demonstrations remain peaceful while others escalate to violence?

Rather than considering protest groups as unitary actors, I present a theory of

collective action in which a group’s decision is the product of individual preferences.

During periods of civil opposition, nonviolent demonstrations are more likely to

become violent when individual members are impatient, desperate, or fear that

collective action will fall apart. Individuals involved in a nonviolent demonstration

use the immediacy of their needs and the sustainability of collective action to decide

whether or not to begin behaving violently. This theoretical approach is an improve-

ment over the unitary framework because it allows me to consider factors that affect

individuals rather than only group attributes. Exploring the things that shape indi-

vidual decisions is necessary since violent escalation is driven by demonstrators

themselves.

Specifically, I consider three factors that influence demonstrations’ likelihood of

escalation: food price increases, unemployment rate, and whether the protest was

organized or spontaneous. First, food price stability or decreases in a country should

allow nonviolent demonstrators to continue using peaceful tactics to attempt to force

concessions. Higher food prices may necessitate a switch to violent tactics because

the need for nutrition must be immediately resolved. Second, when the unemploy-

ment rate within a country is high, individuals will face increased difficulties in

providing for themselves and their families. As a result, they will be more likely to

try any possible tactic, including violent ones, to coerce change. Beyond these two

factors’ individual impacts, the confluence of high food prices and a high unem-

ployment rate creates an environment in which violent escalation is most likely.

Finally, organized demonstrations indicate that leaders have borne the costs of

collective action, signaling the sustainability of nonviolent action. Conversely, the

duration of spontaneous protests is highly uncertain and may cause demonstrators to

consider a switch to violent tactics before collective action collapses.

This project furthers the violent and nonviolent civil conflict research agenda in

three key ways. First, while countless studies investigate why protests and anti-

government violence occurs, few analyze the dynamics of individual events. By

exploring the factors that encourage nonviolent protests to escalate to violence, I

1122 Journal of Conflict Resolution 64(6)