How Purchase Probability Scales Can Shed Light on Consumer Purchase Intentions

• Author: Rene Befurt - Alvin J. Silk
• Position: Rene Befurt is an expert in applying marketing research methodologies to both litigation and strategy case work. He has experience with matters related to false advertising, consumer packaged goods, and communications technology, among others. He can be reached at rene. befurt@analysisgroup.com. Alvin J. Silk is Lincoln Filene Professor of ...
• Pages: 53-56

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How

PURCHASE

PROBABILITY SCALES

Can Shed Light on

CONSUMER PURCHASE

INTENTIONS

By Rene Befurt and Alvin J. Silk

Market researchers generally, and survey

experts specically, study consumers to

learn about their behavior: What are con-

sumers’ opinions, attitudes, thoughts, and

actions at the various stages of the buy-

ing process? Especially in litigation cases, these and other

product purchase-related questions arise in the context of mat-

ters related to topics such as intellectual property, trademark

infringement, false advertising, and antitrust and competition.

Carefully crafted surveys are a powerful tool for assessing con-

sumer behavior, preferences, and purchase intent, especially if

real-life observations or purchase data are not readily available.

Assessing Consumer Purchase Intent

In many cases, in contrast to asking consumers what they think

of a product, we may want to know whether they are actu-

ally willing to put money on the table and make a purchase.

A frequently posed question in litigations involving consumer

behavior asks whether or not consumers will purchase a good

or service in the but-for world, i.e., a world that has never been

observed, and which describes what would have happened in

a difference circumstance. Such questions explore consumers’

“purchase intent” using purchase probability scales, such as the

Juster scale discussed later in this article.

Marketing, economics, and public opinion researchers have

adapted scaling theories and methods from the elds of psy-

chometrics and statistics. All these disciplines share a mode of

observation: collecting and analyzing human responses elic-

ited through interviews and/or self-administered surveys, in

which scales are often used. Scales are not novel concepts to

consumers, as we encounter them in everyday life. For exam-

ple, in many brick and mortar stores, restaurants, and other

service venues, consumers have the opportunity to rate their

experience on a scale from one to ve. Some scales we may

use regularly, and almost unbeknownst to us—we provide rat-

ings for ride services, online shopping experiences, or shows

broadcasted through online streaming services.

Scales are also frequently used in market research. For

example, surveys often rely on purchase intent scales to

determine whether or not consumers are inclined to buy a

product or service. While it may be tempting to ask directly

whether a respondent expects to buy a product during the

next six months, research has shown that these types of direct

questions are limited in their reliability.1 Instead, survey

experts have developed methods to elicit a probability-based

measure of purchase intent, or “purchase probability scales.”

Purchase probability scales can be used to answer a variety of

question types. Does a certain advertising message make consum-

ers more likely to purchase the product? How does the presence

of a particular trademark affect consumers’ choices? How would

consumers react to potentially different prices or to product or

service options after a merger of two companies? Do consumers

consider fewer products, and are their choices ultimately affected?

In an ideal world, we would be able to answer these ques-

tions by following consumers in real life as they make decisions

and purchases, or track their purchases across various databases.

However, these data are not always readily available, or are impos-

sible to track in the case of products that are described in a but-for

world. In such situations, purchase probability scales in carefully

crafted surveys are a proven method for assessing purchase intent.