Houshold ho! Whither they go?

• Author: Safir, Andrew
• Position: The Economy According to Safir

Household ho! Whither they go?

WHEN ALASKANS THINK OF AN "ANNUAL migration," great herds of caribou come to mind, shifting restlessly across the Arctic tundra, following time-worn trails of picturesque splendor. At least, that's what they show in all the travel brochures.

When economists speak of migration, however, less grandiose concepts are often at issue. One of my personal favorites is the annual migration of U.S. households. Every year giant herds of household furniture ebb and flow across the national landscape, following like faithful retainers the job trails etched by their owners in the American economy.

Economists like household furniture a lot! Any state can tell you where employment is strong or job losses are greatest. These numbers are reported monthly in order to calculate social security and unemployment benefits (where taxes are at stake, statistics are always excellent).

Few states, however, can tell you who took the jobs they may have generated, or where those who lost them may be headed next. These trends are "tracked" by the U.S. Census, but by the time these bureaucrats report them - once every 10 years or so - only historians find them amusing. Those of us who need more timely migration patterns rely on kindness of the Moving and Storage Company.

No one knows where America goes better than the moving man. The records of household transportation companies are a wealth of timely and interesting information on the migration patterns of U.S. residents. United Van Lines is a good example. While the census taker may look once a decade, United tallies wandering pianos, meandering rocking chairs, crawling cribs and creeping Philodendron on an annual basis. The company's 1989 "Migration Patterns" study was released in the first quarter of this year and is based on more than 172,000 shipments of household goods handled by United last year.

Where did everybody go? Well, according to United, Oregon attracted the greatest number of net new residents during 1989. That is, it had the greatest percentage of inbound furniture in relation to total shipments of any state covered, and United picked up bits and pieces of America in all 50 of them. Sixty-seven percent of all Oregon activity was inbound.

In fact, despite all the publicity of the Sunbelt, the rainy Northwest including...