Hong Kong blues.

• Author: Powell, Adam Clayton, III

Post-takeover, the media forecast is dark and gloomy.

"It's so gloomy," said a longtime Hong Kong media watcher. She was referring to the overcast sky and drizzling rain, seasonable weather there in March.

But with less than 100 days until the British hand over Hong Kong to the Beijing government on July 1, that climate has also settled over Hong Kong's media. And the forecast suggests that the clouds won't be lifting any time soon, either. Although Beijing's designated ruler for Hong Kong, Tung Chee-Wa, has said that freedom of the press will be preserved, he seems to be thinking in terms of the mainland's definition of open dialogue.

Consider these snapshots from the March 19 issue of a leading English-language daily newspaper, the Hong Kong Standard:

* A front-page story about negotiations over whether advance units of Chinese air and ground forces will be on armed patrols - before July 1.

* Inside, on page 2, a brief story about the release of anti-Beijing protesters on bail pending their trial later this year - under Chinese rule.

* Deeper inside, a story about Tung Chee-Wa's claim that it is currently illegal for anyone to say, "Down with the Queen." Chris Patten, the colony's present governor, said Tung was misinformed.

* A short item on the last set of Hong Kong stamps featuring the image of the British queen, an event that led to lines outside of post offices, as thousands of people stood for several hours to try to buy what are soon to become collectors' items. (The Hong Kong government's Commission against Corruption is investigating charges of speculation. They were shocked - shocked! - to find collectors trying to buy the new stamps at face value so they can turn an easy profit after July, when their value is likely to skyrocket.)

But the most interesting barometer of media climate was the front-page news on March 17 that Xinhua had just announced it would end its high-profile defense of Beijing policy. In the rest of the world, Xinhua is known as the official Chinese news agency. But in Hong Kong, Xinhua has also served as Beijing's diplomatic outpost, issuing Chinese visas and other official government documents. When the voice of Beijing and its official representative in the crown colony announces it will no longer speak out, there might be more there than the statement's text suggests.

One veteran Hong Kong journalist provided the interpretation: Who needs official propaganda when China no longer has any critics in the...