Homo Economus? Economic Information and Economic Voting
| DOI | 10.1177/106591299604900206 |
| Date | 01 June 1996 |
| Author | Thomas Holbrook,James C. Garand |
| Published date | 01 June 1996 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
351
Homo
Economus?
Economic
Information
and
Economic
Voting
THOMAS
HOLBROOK,
UNIVERSITY
OF
WISCONSIN,
MILWAUKEE
JAMES
C.
GARAND,
LOUISIANA
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Although
retrospective
economic
voting
does
not
require
voters
to
have
precise
information
about
recent
economic
conditions,
it
is
arguably
the
case
that
the
quality
of
retrospective
voting
as
a
democratic
accountability
mechanism
hinges
on
the
degree
to
which
citizens
have
reasonably
accu-
rate
perceptions
of
the
state
of
the
economy
In
this
paper
we
test
a
model
of the
accuracy
of
individuals’
perceptions
of
national
economic
condi-
tions.
Utilizing
data
collected
in
a
survey
of
residents
of
Milwaukee
County,
Wisconsin,
during
the
1992
presidential
campaign,
we
depict
perceptual
accuracy
as
a
function
of
four
sets
of
independent
variables:
(1)
personal
characteristics
likely
to
enhance
citizens’
political
and
economic
cognition;
(2)
perceptions
of
economic
threat;
(3)
interest
in
politics
and/or
econom-
ics ;
and
(4)
exposure
to
media
sources.
Our
findings
point
to
the
impor-
tance
of
personal
characteristics,
such
as
socioeconomic
status,
gender,
race,
and
age,
as
well
as
retrospective
personal
evaluations,
political
inter-
est,
and
media
exposure
in
determining
the
accuracy
of
citizens’
economic
perceptions.
Moreover,
we
provide
preliminary
evidence
that
perceptual
inaccuracy
has
an
indirect
effect
on
vote
choice
in
1992
through
its
effect
on
retrospective
sociotropic
economic
evaluations.
Over
the
years
the
effect
of
the
economy
on
political
behavior
and
attitudes
has
drawn
considerable
scholarly
attention.
Using
data
collected
at
the
aggre-
gate
level,
researchers
have
uncovered
strong
effects
of
economic
conditions
on
both
vote
proportions
and
popularity
levels
for
the
incumbent
party
or
NOTE:
This
is
a
revised
version
of
a
paper
presented
at
the
1993
annual
meeting
of
the
Ameri-
can
Political
Science
Association,
Washington,
D.C.,
September
1-5,
1993.
The
au-
thors’ names
are
listed
in
reverse
alphabetical
order;
each
author
shared
equally
in
the
preparation
of
this
paper.
We
would
like
to
thank
Walt
Stone
and
anonymous
review-
ers
of
the
Political
Research
Quarterly
for
their
constructive
comments.
The
data
uti-
lized
in
this
paper
can
be
obtained
by
writing
to
either
of
the
authors.
352
executive
(Kramer
1971;
Lewis-Beck
1980,
1988;
Kiewiet
and
Rivers
1984;
Norpoth
1984;
Tufte
1978).
However,
attempts
to
link
objective
economic
conditions
to
electoral
outcomes
are
often
predicated
on
assumptions
about
individuals’
level
of
economic
understanding
and
knowledge
that
are
prob-
ably
unrealistic.
Although
some
scholars
have
suggested
that
citizens
are
ac-
tually
very
sophisticated
in
their
ability
to
utilize
objective
economic
information
and
forecasts
(Alt
1979;
Chappell
and
Keech
1985;
MacKuen,
Erikson,
and
Stimson
1992),
others
have
found
that
citizens
know
very
little
about
the
objective
economic
conditions
upon
which
their
subjective
eco-
nomic
evaluations
are
supposedly
based.
Conover,
Feldman,
and
Knight
(1986)
find
a
considerable
amount
of
inaccuracy
in
respondents’
estimates
of
the
unemployment
and
inflation
rates,
as
well
as
in
their
general
perceptions
of
whether
economic
conditions
had
improved
or
gotten
worse.
Similarly,
Conover,
Feldman,
and
Knight
(1987)
find
that
voters
have
a
difficult
time
making
accurate
economic
forecasts,
particularly
in
terms
of
how
their
pro-
spective
economic
evaluations
match
up
with
trends
in
actual
economic
con-
ditions.
Despite
the
fact
that
many
citizens
have
a
rough
idea
of
how
the
economy
is
performing,
a
high
proportion
of
citizens
have
a
difficult
time
arriving
at
accurate
estimates
of
current
economic
conditions
and
forecasts
of
future
economic
conditions.
All
of
this
raises
important
questions
about
the
linkage
between
econom-
ics
and
electoral
outcomes.
Arguably,
the
linkage
between
economic
condi-
tions
and
electoral
outcomes
is
based
on
either
(1)
citizens
tying
their
own
personal
economic
circumstances
to
vote
choice,
or
(2)
citizens
accurately
perceiving
the
status
of
national
economic
conditions
and
translating
those
(accurate)
perceptions
into
vote
choice.
If,
as
the
literature
suggests,
citizens
do
not
regularly
cast
votes
based
an
their
personal
economic
situation,
and
if
citizens
base
their
sociotropic
evaluations
on
information
that
is
inaccurate,
the
linkage
between
economic
conditions
and
vote
choice
found
at
the
aggre-
gate
level
may
be
due to
largely
inaccurate
perceptions
of
economic
performance.
In
this
article
we
explore
one
part
of
this
puzzle--that
is,
the
degree
to
which
citizens
acquire
(or
fail
to
acquire)
accurate
information
about
national
economic
conditions.
Using
data
collected
in
a
survey
of
610
respondents
in
Milwaukee
County,
Wisconsin,
just
before
the
1992
presidential
election,
we
examine
what
citizens
know
about
national
economic
conditions,
as
well
as
how
accurate
these
economic
assessments
are.
In
addition,
we
develop
a
model
of
the
accuracy
of
respondents’
economic
assessments
of
national
unemploy-
ment
and
inflation
rates.
Finally,
we
illustrate
how
inaccurate
economic
per-
ceptions
affect
retrospective
sociotropic
evaluations
of
the
economy
and,
ultimately,
political
attitudes
and
vote
choice.
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