Hill County outlook: recession barely noticeable.

• Author: Polzin, Paul E.
• Position: Statistical data

The Great Recession was barely noticeable in Hill County. There were only two years with little or no growth in income. Beginning in 2010, there has been consistent and moderate growth. Nonfarm earnings in 2013 stood at more than 9 percent above their prerecession peak in 2007. Employment is a different story, however. The national trend of lethargic employment growth is reflected in the Hill County data. The number of nonfarm jobs in 2013 is barely larger than the figure for 2007.

Energy has always been an important economic driver in Hill County. It accounts for about 7 percent of the local economic base. Future growth is less likely to be from the direct impacts from oil and gas extraction and more likely to be the indirect effects from energy transportation. Low U.S. natural gas prices have deterred new drilling in North Central Montana, and extraction levels have gradually declined from existing wells. Even so, during 2013 about 4.9 million cubic feet of natural gas was produced in Hill County, making it the fifth largest producer and representing about 4.9 percent of the statewide total.

Railroads account for about 28 percent of the Hill County's economic base and are the largest single component. BNSF has announced significant new hiring as a result of increases in energy (oil and coal), agricultural and transcontinental traffic. The real question is how many of these new workers will be based in the Havre area. Our forecasts incorporate a moderate increase in railroad jobs, but our projections may be too low if more of these jobs materialize locally.

Agriculture and closely linked industries (such as farm equipment dealers) represent about 26 percent of Hill County's economic base. The last half decade has seen record crops and strong prices. The current outlook is for slightly weaker conditions, but only moderately less than the record breaking levels of recent years.

State government accounts for about 13 percent of the economic base and includes MSU Northern plus regional offices for several...