Heterogeneity in the Continuity and Change of Early and Adult Risk Factor Profiles of Incarcerated Individuals: A Latent Transition Analysis

• Author: Bryanna Fox,Richard K. Moule,Edelyn Verona,Kelly Kortright,Lexi Gill,Daniela Oramas Mora
• DOI: 10.1177/1541204020939648
• Published date: 01 January 2021
• Date: 01 January 2021
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article
Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice
2021, Vol. 19(1) 68-93
Heterogeneity in the Continuity
ª The Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/1541204020939648
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Adult Risk Factor Profiles
of Incarcerated Individuals:
A Latent Transition Analysis
Bryanna Fox1 , Kelly Kortright1, Lexi Gill1, Daniela Oramas Mora1,
Richard K. Moule Jr.1, and Edelyn Verona2
Abstract
Considerable research has examined risk factors for offending, but far less is known on the con-
stellations of co-occurring risk factors, such as adverse childhood experiences and low self-control,
and the overall continuity in risk between childhood/adolescence and adulthood. Using data on 735
adults incarcerated in a county jail in Florida, this study examines the latent heterogeneity in risk
profiles using risk factors prominent in early years and adulthood, and whether risk profile severity
changes across the early and adult risk models.
Latent Class Analyses revealed three risk profiles (low, medium, high) in both the early and
adulthood risk factor models. Transition probabilities indicate continuity in high and low risk in the
early and adult models, while escalation was found for those in the low and medium early risk profiles.
These findings demonstrate the importance of identifying and addressing risk factors at an early age to
disrupt continuity and escalation in risk over the life-course.
Keywords
risk factors, latent class analysis, continuity, profiles, developmental/life-course criminology
For decades, criminologists have sought to understand the relationship between early risk factors and
antisocial behavior (e.g., Farrington, 1995; Loeber, 1990; Moffit, 2015; Reid & Patterson, 1989). Some
of this research has focused on the dispositional or constitutional differences between individuals, such
as impulsivity or low intelligence (e.g., Farrington, 2015; Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990; Moffitt, 1993),
while other research has focused on how environmental adversity such as abuse and trauma, influences
later offending (e.g., Moffitt, 1993; Widom, 1989; for a review see Jolliffe et al., 2017). However,
1 Department of Criminology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA
2 Department of Psychology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA
Corresponding Author:
Bryanna Fox, Department of Criminology, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, SOC 107, Tampa, FL 33620, USA.
Email: bhfox@usf.edu

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Fox et al.
69
research also suggests that individual and environmental risk factors “do not operate in isolation”
(Kendziora & Osher, 2004, p. 182), and offenders often display multiple risk factors that span across
several domains (Loeber & Farrington, 1998; Thornberry et al., 1995). These constellations of risk
factors operate in a cumulative fashion, particularly in early years, leading to a non-linear impact on
future level of risk and future offending (Herrenkohl et al., 2000; Loeber & Farrington, 1998).
For instance, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have received considerable attention in the
criminological, psychological, and health arenas, as they represent a major environmental risk factor
in childhood/adolescence and have consistently been associated with negative outcomes, which in
turn increase the risk for future antisocial behavior (Anda et al., 2006, 2010; Baglivio et al., 2015;
Felitti et al., 1998; Fox et al., 2015). While psychotherapy interventions (e.g. trauma therapy) may
help mitigate the effects of ACEs on negative adult outcomes, ACEs still tend to co-occur with other
notable early risk factors (e.g. head injury), and the biological stress response to ACEs and trauma can
alter brain structures and functions important for developing self-control, emotional control, and
behavioral control (Cicchetti & Toth, 2005; Hart & Rubia, 2012; Raine, 2014; Witt et al., 2010). In
turn, this combination of risk factors (e.g., trauma response, low self-control), has been associated
with risk factors such as delinquent peer association, poor anger control, and substance abuse later in
life (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990). In essence, ACEs and related early risk factors can lead to the
development of, and co-occur with, many additional risk factors that increase the risk of negative
outcomes including offending.
Paralleling this work has been an interest in adult risk factors for crime and violence (e.g., Burton
et al., 1999; Glueck & Glueck, 1968; Wolfe et al., 2016), although limited research has examined how
individual differences and environmental factors interact to increase the risk of offending in adult-
hood. Additional work is needed to determine if there is heterogeneity (or uniformity) in cumulative
risk factor profiles for the early years and adulthood, and whether there is continuity (or change) in
overall risk level at these time periods. Continuity in risk from childhood/adolescence to adulthood
would suggest a need for early identification and treatment to reduce later risk of offending. Escalation
in risk level from early years to adulthood would indicate an accumulation of risk factors over time,
and underscore the value of early prevention strategies. Therefore, understanding the hetereogeneity
and continuity in risk level from childhood/adolescence through adulthood is important for crimin-
ologists, practitioners, and public health officials, as it can be used to better inform the nature, timing,
and duration of intervention programming according to the co-occurrence and severity of risk factors
at different points in the life-course.
To that end, this study examines the latent heterogeneity that exists within early and adult risk fac-
tors for offending, and the continuity and change in risk profiles that occur over these time periods.
Drawing from developmental/life-course (DLC) theory predictions on the stability in risk based on the
age reference point (i.e. time period associated with the onset and greatest impact) of risk factors (Krohn
et al., 1997), and research suggesting there is heterogeneity in risk factors among individuals over time
(Farrington, 2005b; Moffitt, 1993; Sampson & Laub, 2005), this study uses a Latent Transition Analysis
on data obtained from a sample of incarcerated adult arrestees to address the following research
questions:
1.
Is there latent heterogeneity in the constellations of early risk factors?
2.
Is there latent heterogeneity in the constellations of adult risk factors?
3.
Is there continuity or change in level of risk across the resultant early and adult risk profiles?
Our overall goal is to elaborate on how distinct constellations of early-life risk factors relate to risk
levels assessed in adulthood. We begin by discussing how DLC research has shown both continuity
and change in risk over time, before examining early risk factors, and then moving on to adult risk
factors for offending.

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Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice 19(1)
Continuity and Change in Risk Factors Over the Life-Course
DLC theories aim to predict and explain offending behaviors, such as onset, persistence, frequency,
and desistance, across the lifespan (Farrington, 2005a). These theories tend to focus on individual
and environmental characteristics that are most predictive of criminal behavior, often grouping them
as risk factors occurring in early years vs adulthood (see reviews in Farrington, 2003a, 2010). As
such, DLC theories are unique in that they take a holistic approach to assessing risk, and they
acknowledge that a constellation of early and adult risk factors can accumulate to influence indi-
vidual involvement in offending.
Research suggests that there is a compounding effect of risk factors for antisocial and criminal
behavior; those who experience a plethora of risk factors in early life are at higher risk of
sustaining (and developing new) risk factors for offending in adulthood (Levenson et al., 2016;
Reavis et al., 2013). Two processes are theorized to underlie the relative stability in risk factor
patterns over the lifespan: cumulative continuity and interactional continuity (Caspi et al., 1987,
1989). Cumulative continuity is a process where risk factors are maintained as a function of the
“progressive accumulation of their own consequences” (Caspi et al., 1987, p. 308). For instance,
early difficulties in emotional regulation may interfere with forming social bonds later in life
(Huesmann et al., 2009). Interactional continuity refers to the perpetuation of risk where initial
risk factors elicit responses from the environment that support and/or maintain risk over time
through reactive, proactive, and evocative processes (Caspi et al., 1987, 1989). For example, an
individual with early risk factors such as ACEs, may interpret, experience, and respond to their
environment in a way that increases the perpetuation of risk, such as mistrust of others, in the
future (Temcheff et al., 2008).
More transitory, versus stable, environmental risk factors are associated with offending primarily
during adolescence, while continuity in offending from juvenile years to adulthood is a function of
risk factors largely identifiable in childhood and stable over time (Farrington, 2003b; Moffitt, 1993).
However, research also indicates that situational factors can serve as turning points, such as gainful
employment or marriage, which can change the trajectory of an individual’s risk and offending
patterns, introducing discontinuity in risk patterns over the life-course (e.g. Sampson & Laub,...