Here's to the Losers: Lessons from the 1998 Elections.

• Author: Bresler, Robert J.
• Position: Brief Article

THE FIRST SET of losers on Election Day was the experts who once again got it wrong. The consensus prediction called for Republican gains in both the House and Senate, and few had forecast Democratic gains in the House. The pollsters who forecast that the Senate races in New York, California, Wisconsin, and South Carolina were going to be decided by one or two points were far off the mark. Whatever one thinks of the outcome, it always is refreshing to learn that voters rarely are pigeonholed and categorized easily.

The second set of losers was the Congressional leadership of the Republican Party. Republicans should have learned that a political party's Congressional leaders can not be the national spokesmen at the same time. The two jobs are at war with each other. A political spokesman must attempt to establish the broad themes for the party and develop a clear and consistent agenda. The Congressional leaders of the party constantly are distracted from this task by their involvement in the tactical maneuvering that is an inevitable part of the legislative process. Newt Gingrich was brilliant in setting the Republican agenda in 1994 that allowed them to capture the Congress. Once he became Speaker, his effectiveness diminished. He could not outmaneuver Pres. Clinton and, when he attempted to do so--as in the budget compromise--the Republican message became blurred. Gingrich's resignation came one step ahead of the insurgent lynch mob led by his successor, Robert Livingston.

Past Speakers of the House did not cast themselves in the role of a party agenda setter or national spokesman. It would be hard to imagine the likes of Sam Rayburn, John McCormick, Carl Albert, and Tip O'Neill even attempting such a task. They were legislative tacticians who stayed behind the scenes. The Republicans need Livingston to be a House Speaker who will tend to the complex legislative job of keeping their razor-thin majority together and dealing with the devilishly clever Bill Clinton while letting others step forward as the national spokesmen.

The third set of losers will be those advocates of dramatic reform on both ends of the political spectrum. With the current delicate balance of power in Congress, neither side is likely to see its agenda enacted. The strongest contender is health maintenance organization (HMO) reform--the so-called patients' bill of rights. Even Clinton's original bill is a modest reform at best, and any bill that does emerge from...