HCV will be a rare disease in 22 years.

• Position: Hepatitis C

Effective new drugs and screening would make hepatitis C a rare disease by 2036, according to a computer simulation conducted by The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, and the University of Pittsburgh (Pa.) Graduate School of Public Health.

"Hepatitis C (HCV) is the leading cause of liver cancer and accounts for more than 15,000 deaths in the U.S. each year," says Jagpreet Chhatwal, assistant professor of UT's Health Services Research. "If we can improve access to treatment and incorporate more aggressive screening guidelines, we can reduce the number of chronic HCV cases, prevent more cases of liver cancer, and reduce liver-related deaths."

HCV--a virus transmitted through the blood--is spread by sharing of needles, the use of contaminated medical equipment, and by tattoo and piercing equipment that has not been sterilized fully. Widespread screening of the U.S. blood supply for hepatitis C began in 1992. A majority of people were infected through blood transfusions or organ transplants before 1992.

Baby Boomers--those born between 1945-65--account for 75% of the estimated 2,700,000 to 3,900,000 people infected in the U.S. Half of the individuals with the virus are not aware they are infected. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force now recommend a one-time HCV screening for this population group.

In this study, Chhatwal and his collaborators used a mathematical model with information from...