We have met the enemy: it's the economy stupid.

• Author: Erwin, Sandra I.
• Position: DEFENSEINSIDER

In the U.S. military, planning for the future usually means determining how many forces, how much hardware and firepower will be needed to defeat potential enemies.

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The Army, alas, is channeling Apple Computer and decided to "think different."

No matter what conflicts the nation might face, there is a fairly high certainty that the military will be cash-strapped, strategists predict. Politicians today might be in denial about the impact of the national debt on the military, but the Army is trying to get ahead of the game, and is openly debating how it might do business with a budget half the size of what it is now.

"The United States has the biggest credit card in the world. But even that credit card has a limit. When that credit card gets taken away, what do we do?" asked Lt. Col. Mark Elfendahl, chief of joint and Army concepts at the Army Capabilities Integration Center at Fort Monroe, Va.

At a recent "Alternative Futures Symposium" in McLean, Va., three "alternative futures" were projected for the period 2018 to 2030: One of global economic collapse, one where enemies would deny the U.S. military access to...