Hard to figure.

• Author: Kinney, David
• Position: North Carolina economic statistics

The question posed on the cover begs another: "Compared to what?" Pinning that down, we discovered, was akin to skinning an onion. Peeling layer after layer away, you finally reach the core and find ... well, you're not sure what you've found. The answer, if there is one, turns out to be: "Depends."

Starting out, it seemed simple - we'd use the figures the N.C. Department of Commerce compiles to see how this state stacks up against others in recruiting new industry. That'd also allow us to compare how we're doing now, under the new method of marketing North Carolina through its seven regional partnerships, against the old centralized way. Senior Editor Terry Noland asked for new projects, capital investment and jobs for each of the past five years.

"The 1992 figures - 1,101 announcements vs. 180 in '95 - looked so out of whack that I asked the spokeswoman to check them," he says. "Her initial response was, 'It was just a really good year.'"

Asked to check once more, she came back with an explanation: The Business/Industry Development Division's director at the time, Alvah Ward, had included projects such as fast-food restaurants and hair salons that are no longer counted. She provided new numbers for '91 and '92, revised to match the current criteria.

A couple of weeks later, Business/Industry director Gary Carlton called to say those numbers were incorrect. The revision had been a "quicky job" that had "left out some very important data." He declined to do another revision. "I can't go back and change the past directors' numbers because they have been put out and printed. Even if it were practical, it wouldn't be smart." (He suggested looking at just manufacturing numbers, which he says have been tallied consistently. But removing nonmanufacturing removes a big piece of the picture.)

Everybody seems to agree that we've slipped some since other states began aggressively courting business, some with hefty financial incentives. But how far? And then the question arose: Even now, who's counting what? Commerce has its criteria for what should be counted. Other states have theirs. And Site Selection magazine, whose annual ranking of announcements has become, in effect, the contest by which states win their bragging rights, has its own. The lines, we learned, tend to get blurred.

This problem is compounded by the fact that Commerce depends on local and regional economic developers and agencies to report projects the department might not know...