Handbook of Energy Politics.

• Author: Dahl, Emeritus Carol
• Position: Book review

Handbook of Energy Politics edited by Jennifer Considine and Keun-Wook Paik. (Edward Elgar, 2018), 528 pages, ISBN: 9781784712297.

The editors of this volume take Mel Conant's definition of geopolitics--"geo" for location and "politics" for the decisions of governments. Starting from his prospective as a tribute and memorial is a nice touch. Mel, one of those to whom the volume is dedicated, was an icon in energy economics and geopolitics. His consulting firm for decades studied and advised many on the economic, political and security aspects of oil and gas. He was founder and editor of the monthly periodical Geopolitics of Energy from 1979-1995.

The forward contains two short Conant articles that are cause for thought and reflection. One published shortly after the Iranian revolution in 1979, first indicates an earlier time when the world was flush with oil. American oil policy was largely determined by meetings between oil producers and Washington policymakers to protect the US oil industry from cheap foreign imports. With US production peaking, the Arab oil embargo, and the Iranian revolution, cries of protection from cheap oil imports became a scramble for access to foreign imports. Gone were the feelings of abundance. Conant likens U.S. energy policy at the time to a high stake "gigantic floating crap game" and notes the geopolitical struggles within the US. Oil producers wanted the high market prices for oil, coal producers wanted to protect and promote coal, the farm belt wanted gasohol, solar projects appealed to the Sunbelt, New England thought low oil prices a good thing and wouldn't mind subsidies for wood stoves either.

The other Conant article written in the mid-nineteen nineties after the fall of the Soviet Union and the first Gulf War paints a picture of oil scarcity and insecurity. It outlines key issues in oil markets at the time: US policy failure to curb oil consumption and a dependence on unstable Gulf states for oil imports, dwindling supplies of oil in Southeast Asia, increasing competition for production from the Arabian/Persian Gulf, Russia's lagging oil and gas industry, and the prescience that regional trouble spots such as Iraq or Yemen might provide future arenas of conflict to threaten oil supplies.

Although the editors argue that little has changed in US energy and environmental policy since Conant's 1979 article, I would argue that feelings of oil shortage and insecurity are dramatically muted. Producers heavily dependent on oil are unlikely to use it as a political weapon; rapid technical change has make hydrocarbons relatively abundant at a moment of weakening oil markets; U.S. natural gas has put dramatic stress on global coal markets; rapid decreases in solar and wind power costs coupled with digital technology and a Chinese push towards electric vehicles suggest a transportation path that could put more stress on oil markets sooner than I would have predicted a few years ago. Despite a relative feeling of fossil fuel abundance, climate policy and technical change may bring peak oil closer but from the demand not the supply side. Gas still looks like a good bet. I would agree that struggles over oil and gas will not cease as buyers, sellers, and policy makers continue to dance with each to their own tunes but the dance may be slower.

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