Guns and Democracy: Anti-System Attitudes, Protest, and Support for Violence Among Pandemic Gun-Buyers

• Published date: 01 September 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10659129241249662
• Author: Matthew D. Simonson,Matthew J. Lacombe,Jon Green,James N. Druckman
• Date: 01 September 2024
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Political Research Quarterly

2024, Vol. 77(3) 962–977

© The Author(s) 2024

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DOI: 10.1177/10659129241249662

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Guns and Democracy: Anti-System

Attitudes, Protest, and Support for

Violence Among Pandemic Gun-Buyers

Matthew D. Simonson

1

, Matthew J. Lacombe

2

, Jon Green

3

, and

James N. Druckman

4



Abstract

The last decade has given rise to substantial concern about democratic backsliding in the U.S. Manifestations include

decreased trust in government, conspiratorial beliefs, contentious protests, and support for political violence.

Surprisingly, prior work has not explored how these attitudes and behaviors relate to gun-buying, an action that

provides people with the means to challenge the state. We address this topic by focusing on the unprecedented gun-

buying surge during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a survey with over 32,000 respondent s, we f‌ind that—relative

to pre-existing gun owners (who did not buy during the pandemic) and the non-gun-owning public—pandemic gun-

buyers are more likely to distrust government, believe in conspiracies, protest, and support political violence. These

anti-government views and protest behaviors are especially likely among those who bought guns for political

reasons. Our f‌indings highlight a crucial dynamic underlying the recent spike in gun sales with consequences for

American democracy.

Keywords

guns, political violence, conspiratorial beliefs, COVID-19, protest, democracy, democratic backsliding

In recent years, mistrust in the United States govern-

ment has been accompanied by instances of violence.

From armed, and at times violent, protests to the

conspiracy-driven insurrection that was attempted on

January 6, 2021, the stability of American democracy

has been called into question. Scholars, observing these

developments, have increasingly turned their attention

to the perils faced by the U.S. political system (e.g.,

Bartels 2020;Finkel et al. 2020;Graham and Svolik

2020;Clayton et al. 2021;Kingzette et al. 2021;

Druckman 2024). This includes exploration of the

public’s trust in government (Hetherington and

Rudolph 2015), its endorsement of conspiracy beliefs

(Cassese, Farhart, and Miller 2020;Enders et al. 2022a;

Uscinski et al. 2021), its involvement in contentious

protests (Bartuseviˇ

cius et al. 2021), and its support for

political violence (Kalmoe and Mason 2022).

While these burgeoning literatures have produced

wide-ranging insights, relatively little attention has

been paid to how individuals’views of their political

system relate to their decision to purchase f‌irearms. This

gap is potentially consequential given that gun-buying

involves taking an action (i.e., arming oneself) that can

directly precede threatening or challenging the state—

or other perceived political enemies—by using vio-

lence. Moreover, gun ownership has long been asso-

ciated with a sociopolitical worldview that portrays

f‌irearms as tools that, if deemed necessary, can be

turned against others (including the state) to protect

liberty (Lacombe 2021). And f‌inally, gun-buying has

spiked in recent years with a record-breaking number of

Americans responding to tumultuous circumstances by

acquiring f‌irearms (Denham and Ba Tran 2021;

M. Fisher et al. 2021;Tave rni se 20 21). As a result, we

1

The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel

2

Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA

3

Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

4

University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, USA

Corresponding Author:

Matthew J. Lacombe, Department of Political Science, Case Western

Reserve University, Mather House, 11201 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH

44106-7109, USA.

Email: matthew.lacombe@case.edu

might expect those who buy guns—particularly during

timesmarkedbyturmoilandconf‌lict—to exhibit less

trust in government, hold more conspiracy beliefs,

engage in more contentious protests, and be more

supportive of political violence, relative to other

Americans. If so, it would suggest these attitudes and

behaviors, which are important and concerning on their

own, also have a potentially troubling behavioral

connection to gun-buying.

As mentioned, there is reason to expect that such a

connection might exist, specif‌ically among those who

bought guns during diff‌icult times, such as the COVID-

19 pandemic. Recent work indicates that the same

economic, political, social, and public health crises that

have ostensibly spurred mistrust and violence have also

motivated many Americans to purchase f‌irearms (Lang

and Lang 2021). At least 17 million Americans, in fact,

bought guns during 2020—an approximately 4 million

person increase over the previous year—which shat-

tered prior sales records and started a trend that con-

tinued into 2021 (DenhamandBaTran2021;M.Fisher

et al. 2021;Tavernise 2021). The timing, circum-

stances, and magnitude of this surge raise important

questions: Are those who chose to obtain the means for

violence (i.e., guns) during the 2020–21 buying spike

less trusting of the political system, more likely to hold

conspiracy beliefs, and more likely to engage in pro-

tests? Are they more likelythanotherAmericansto

condone violence?

We address these questions using a large survey of

more than 32,000 respondents, including many who

purchased guns during 2020 and 2021. Our data enable

us to assess the relationship between gun-buying and

the aforementioned outcomes (i.e., trust, conspiracy

beliefs, protesting, support for violence). We also study

individuals’motivations for buying guns in the f‌irst

place. We f‌ind that those who bought f‌irearms amidst

the chaos of the past few years, especially for political

reasons, are more likely to be low in trust, conspira-

torial, engage in protests, and support political violence

than pre-existing gun owners (who did not buy during

the pandemic) and the non-gun-owning public. In short,

those who bought a gun during the pandemic are

particularly likely to hold beliefs that make democracy

vulnerable. This holds even when controlling for party,

ideology, and other potential confounders.

Our f‌indings contribute to the emerging literature on

radical views among the U.S. public, as well as the

existing literature on gun owners as a political group

(e.g., Kalmoe and Mason 2022;Lacombe et al. 2022;

Uscinski et al. 2021;Westwood et al. 2022). Moreover,

they suggest that the recent gun-buying surge—by

increasing the number of arms that are held by

Americans who distrust the system and condone

political violence—may have tangible consequences

for democracy.

The American Public and

Democratic Stability

Democratic governance relies on the presumption of

accountability and consensual agreement on certain

shared norms. American politics in the twenty-f‌irst

century has been def‌inedbyamonotonicrisein

ideological polarization among elites and affective

polarization among the mass public (e.g., Druckman

et al. 2024;Finkel et al. 2020;Iyengar et al. 2019;

McCarty 2019). This has led scholars and pundits to

express concern about the stability of American de-

mocracy (Druckman 2024). To be clear, the causal

relationship between polarization and democratic sta-

bility remains ambiguous (Broockman, Kalla, and

Westwood 2022;Voelkel et al. 2021); however, the

former has certainly contributed to increased attention

to the latter. This includes at least four phenomena that

have the potential to upset democratic stability: trust in

government, conspiracy theories, protests (particularly

when aimed at governmental entities), and political

violence. We discuss each in turn.

Trust in government plays a crucial role in ensuring

regime legitimacy. While uncritical “blind faith”in

government leaders can undermine democratic ac-

countability (Almond and Verba 1963), a lack of trust

can be no less detrimental. Citizens with low trust may

be more likely to f‌lout government policies (Levi and

Sacks 2009). Hetherington (2005, 51) explains that “if

people perceive the architect of policies as untrust-

worthy, they will reject its policies; if they consider it

trustworthy, they will be more inclined to embrace

them”(also see Hetherington and Rudolph 2015). A

government whose policies are ignored can quickly lose

legitimacy, making extra-legal challenges to the state—

such as the January 6

th

insurrection—feel justif‌ied (e.g.,

Krekó 2015). Furthermore, when citizens do not trust

the government to handle crises such as COVID-19, the

resulting economic shock, or the 2020 racial justice

protests (and occasional riots), they may resort to “self-

help”modes of personal protection—e.g., arming

themselves (Black 1983;Kelsay et al. 2018;Smith and

Uchida 1988).

Much has been written about the correlates of trust in

government—for instance, the extent to which partisans

trust the government only when their party controls it

(e.g., Brady and Kent 2022;Hetherington and Rudolph

2015). Our question differs insofar as we are interested

in whether purchasing a gun correlates with lower

levels of trust in government. The expectation for this

Simonson et al. 963