Group Size versus Change? Assessing Americans’ Perception of Local Immigration
| Author | Benjamin J. Newman,Yamil Velez |
| DOI | 10.1177/1065912913517303 |
| Date | 01 June 2014 |
| Published date | 01 June 2014 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
research-article2014
Article
Political Research Quarterly
2014, Vol. 67(2) 293 –303
Group Size versus Change?
© 2014 University of Utah
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Assessing Americans’ Perception
DOI: 10.1177/1065912913517303
prq.sagepub.com
of Local Immigration
Benjamin J. Newman1 and Yamil Velez2
Abstract
Leading opinion research on immigration has begun to move from size-based to change-based measures of citizens’
ethnic context. This shift is based on the theoretical assumption that over-time growth in immigrant populations is
more likely to capture citizens’ attention than their current size. At present, there is no empirical evidence supporting
this assumption. This article demonstrates that while the size of local immigrant populations exerts virtually no
effect on perceived immigration, over-time growth strongly influences citizens’ perceptions of immigration into their
community. In addition, our analyses illuminate the differential contribution of growth in local Hispanic and Asian
populations to perceived immigration.
Keywords
immigration, public opinion, contextual effect, ethnic change
Recent research on immigration has begun to focus on
1949), in predicting political outcomes of interest
over-time growth, rather than contemporaneous size, as
(Hainmueller and Hopkins 2014). At the theoretical level,
the theoretically and empirically relevant characteristic
the rising focus on the over-time growth, rather than the
of local immigrant minority populations responsible for
size, of immigrant populations is grounded upon the
driving threat and shaping political behavior and policy
mounting assertion that drastic changes in local immi-
outcomes. Indeed, across several fields of research,
grant populations are more likely to capture the attention
scholarship finds that increases in local immigrant pop-
of local citizens than the size of these populations
ulations, rather than their prevailing levels, are respon-
(Hopkins 2010; Newman 2013). We label this assertion
sible for driving behavioral outcomes ranging from
the salience-of-change hypothesis. While this assertion
racially motivated hate crime (Green, Strolovitch, and
has received indirect support from extant research dem-
Wong 1998) and native neighborhood out-migration
onstrating significant effects for population growth coin-
(Crowder, Hall, and Tolnay 2011) to xenophobic voting
ciding with null effects for levels (e.g., Hopkins 2009,
behavior (Alexseev 2006) and public opinion on immi-
2010; Newman et al. 2012), scholarship in the field of
gration more generally (Hopkins 2010;Newman 2013;
immigration has yet to provide any direct evidence that
Newman and Johnson 2012). At the policy level,
growth in local immigrant populations captures citizens’
changes in ethnic diversity have been found to trump the
attention more than their size, or that growth is perceived
effects of standing levels of heterogeneity in influencing
at all. In the absence of such evidence, this shift in focus
outcomes such as local government investment in pub-
within the literature, as well as the findings that support
lic goods (Hopkins 2009) and enactment of anti-immi-
it, are open to uncertainty and criticism regarding whether
grant ordinances (Hopkins 2010), as well as state
a key link in presumed causal processes is in fact true.
government passage of “official English” language laws
Indeed, any disconfirming evidence would throw into
(Citrin et al. 1990) and E-Verify legislation (Newman
et al. 2012).
1University of Connecticut, Stamford, USA
The shift in focus from the size of immigrant popula-
2Stony Brook University, NY, USA
tions to their over-time growth has largely been moti-
vated at the practical level by the empirical weakness of
Corresponding Author:
Benjamin J. Newman, Department of Political Science, University of
immigrant population levels, and thus corresponding
Connecticut, One University Place, 367, Stamford, CT 06901, USA.
racial or “power threat” hypotheses (Blalock 1967; Key
Email: benj.newman@uconn.edu
294
Political Research Quarterly 67(2)
question the validity of the theories underlying these
This expectation is further supported by existing
findings and relegate our explanation of them to the
research on racial integration and community life, which
“black box.”
suggests that, while processes of enculturation and habit-
uation (Sam and Berry 2010) as well as residential self-
Perception of Ethnic Context and
selection (Clark 1992; Oliver and Wong 2003) lead
Salience of Change
citizens to be acclimated to baseline levels of diversity in
their community of origin or selection (Hopkins 2009;
The case for focusing on over-time changes in immigrant
Newman 2013), sudden changes in the ethnic composi-
populations, rather than their present levels, is made most
tion of a community constitute a riveting stimulus because
recently by Hopkins (2010) in a leading study explaining
it threatens the displacement of the sociocultural status
the sources of public opposition to immigration. Hopkins
quo within a community. As prior ethnographic research
reviews the opinion literature on immigration and notes
documents, sudden ethnic change may undermine exist-
the inconsistent nature of the findings for the power threat
ing social networks and long-term residents’ conceptual-
hypothesis (see Blalock 1967), where some studies find
izations of community identity (Horton 1995; Rieder
that the residing near large immigrant minority popula-
1985; Suttles 1972), thus altering expectations about
tions triggers threat (Campbell et al. 2006; Stein et al.
community life and creating uncertainty about the future
2000; Tolbert and Grummel 2003), others find that it
(Hopkins 2009). Taken together, this research provides a
decreases threat (Fetzer 2000; Fox 2004; Hood and
theoretical and empirical foundation for the salience-of-
Morris 1997), and most studies find that it exerts no effect
change hypothesis advanced by Hopkins (2010) because
on citizens’ opinions on immigration (Cain et al. 2000;
it casts extant levels of diversity as a presumed quality of
Citrin et al. 1990; Dixon and Rosenbaum 2004; Frandreis
one’s neighborhood while pinpointing the pressure points
and Tatolovitch 1997; Taylor 1998). Hopkins suggests
struck by ethnic change. In short, influxes of immigrants
that the inconsistent results might be driven by scholars’
should be locally salient over current population sizes
use of size-based rather than change-based measures of
precisely because change, rather than levels, is what
ethnic context. Indeed, Hopkins argues that the empirical
threatens personal (e.g., tenure in community, property
weakness of size-based measures may be due to the fail-
values) and collective (e.g., social capital, community
ure of one of the key preconditions for threat to obtain:
identity, neighborhood quality, public services) goods
citizens’ perception of their ethnic context.
attached to one’s community in its current form.
In addition to citing the literature on citizens’ innumer-
Furthermore, sudden ethnic change arouses the potential
acy with respect to minority populations and noting that
for conflict between local ethnic majorities and arriving
residential and occupational segregation further limits the
immigrant minorities (Green et al. 1998; Horton 1995).
visibility of immigrants, Hopkins attempts to resolve the
Building on this logic, psychologists have documented
issue of citizens’ inattention to immigrant population sizes
the existence of a negativity bias in humans, whereby
by issuing the critical assertion that “while levels of ethnic
negative information is (1) more potent, (2) associated
heterogeneity might escape notice, changes are less likely
with more cognitive elaboration, (3) more capable of
to do so” (2010, 42). The assertion that growth in local
tainting perceptions of objects, and (4) attended to with
immigrant populations will be perceived by residents is
more urgency than positive information (see Rozin and
critical to Hopkins’ theory, as his core hypothesis and
Royzman 2001). Insofar as immigrants are perceived in
findings, as well as those of other scholars focusing on
negative terms and associated with various threats, we
change rather than size (e.g., Green, Strolovitch, and
ought to expect residents to be more attentive to changes
Wong 1998; Newman 2013), are predicated on this asser-
in local immigrant populations than prevailing levels,
tion, which we label the salience-of-change hypothesis.
especially since these changes ought to signal a signifi-
This hypothesis predicts that (1) citizens will perceive
cant deviation from what residents have come to expect
over-time growth in local immigrant populations, and that
from their local community.
(2) growth will be more perceptually salient than levels of
While intuitively plausible and situated in firm theory,
local immigrants. The salience-of-change hypothesis, as
the core predictions of the salience-of-change hypothesis
advanced by Hopkins (2010), is grounded in prospect
have yet to be directly empirically confirmed. To be sure,
theory, which argues that in the presence of large quanti-
leading work in the field has positioned immigration-driven
ties of incoming information,...
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