Grand Strategy in the Afghan, Pakistan and Iraq Wars.

• Author: Sempa, Francis P.

Grand Strategy in the Afghan, Pakistan and Iraq Wars

By Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy, CSIS http://csis.org/publication/grand-strategy-afghan-pakistan-and-iraq-wars

Reviewed by Francis P. Sempa, Contributing Editor

Under the subtitle "The End State Fallacy," Anthony Cordesman has written a sobering analysis of the prospects for U.S. success in the wars it is currently fighting in Iraq and Southwest Asia. He criticizes both the Bush and Obama administrations for failure to develop an overarching "regional grand strategy" for both conflicts. "The costs of wars in blood and dollars," he writes, "can only be justified by their grand strategic outcome over time, not by whether enough progress can be made to claim a temporary victory or pull out most of our troops."

The Persian Gulf region, according to Cordesman, is a region of vital interest to the United States, while the Afghan-Pakistan region is not, and our strategies should reflect that strategic judgment.

Cordesman sketches realistic scenarios for each conflict, and he rates as most likely outcomes where our allies in the region do not survive or barely "muddle through" with little enhanced security. Successful outcomes for U.S. interests in both regions...