Governance and Regional Variation of Homicide Rates

• Author: Yan Zhang,Liqun Cao
• Published date: 01 January 2017
• Date: 01 January 2017
• DOI: 10.1177/0306624X15587278
• Subject Matter: Articles

International Journal of

Offender Therapy and

Comparative Criminology

2017, Vol. 61(1) 25 –45

© The Author(s) 2015

Reprints and permissions:

sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav

DOI: 10.1177/0306624X15587278

ijo.sagepub.com

Article

Governance and Regional

Variation of Homicide

Rates: Evidence From Cross-

National Data

Liqun Cao1,2 and Yan Zhang3

Abstract

Criminological theories of cross-national studies of homicide have underestimated the

effects of quality governance of liberal democracy and region. Data sets from several

sources are combined and a comprehensive model of homicide is proposed. Results of

the spatial regression model, which controls for the effect of spatial autocorrelation,

show that quality governance, human development, economic inequality, and ethnic

heterogeneity are statistically significant in predicting homicide. In addition, regions

of Latin America and non-Muslim Sub-Saharan Africa have significantly higher rates of

homicides ceteris paribus while the effects of East Asian countries and Islamic societies

are not statistically significant. These findings are consistent with the expectation of

the new modernization and regional theories.

Keywords

ethnic heterogeneity, governance of liberal democracy, homicide, human development,

inequality, region, spatial autocorrelation

Most studies on cross-national homicide suffer from one or more of the following

problems. First, models are under-identified, omitting important variables, such as

quality governance and regional variation. Second, the samples are frequently small,

slanting toward the West and the developed societies. Because of the small sample size

1University of Ontario Institute of Technology, Oshawa, Canada

2Hunan University, China, and Queensland University of Technology, Australia

3Sam Houston State University, Huntsville, TX, USA

Corresponding Author:

Liqun Cao, University of Ontario Institute of Technology, 55 Bond St. E., Oshawa, ON L1G 0A5,

Canada.

Email: Liqun.cao@uoit.ca

587278IJOXXX10.1177/0306624X15587278International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative CriminologyCao and Zhang

research-article2015

26 International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 61(1)

as well as non-random sample, the results are hardly inferential (Braithwaite &

Braithwaite, 1980). Third, the overall level of variance explained is often low

(Weisburd & Piquero, 2008), which is also partially related to the first issue of model

identification. Fourth, models fail to control the effect of spatial autocorrelations—a

violation of the assumption of independence of geographic units.

The current research has a dual purpose. First, it attempts to extend the insight

derived from the new variant of modernization theory by political scientist Welzel and

his colleagues (Welzel & Inglehart, 2005; Welzel, Inglehart, & Klingemann, 2003) to

explain global homicide variation. Second, it seeks to test a more comprehensive model

of homicide by including the effects of region in the new modernization theory. The

essay is divided into six sections. We first briefly introduce our propositions. Then we

examine the existing literature of homicides and propose our model to be tested.

Afterward, we describe our data and measurement. This is followed by analyzing the

data. We then present the results, and finally we discuss the implication of our findings.

Built upon Inglehart and his colleagues’ early works (Inglehart, 1990, 2003) and

upon Sen’s (1999) human development theory, Welzel and his colleagues (Welzel &

Inglehart, 2005; Welzel et al., 2003) proposed a new version of modernization theory

and they posit that the essence of human progress is the process of enlarging human

autonomy and choices through freedom rights. Freedom rights give people legal space

to exert autonomous choices in the private and public activities. The new version of

modernization theory is intrinsically linked to democratic governance and is con-

cerned with liberty, empowerment, and social change. Democracy requires that citi-

zens register their preferences and have a voice in the laws that govern them, that

officials are responsive and accountable to the interests of citizens, and that citizens

are treated with equal concern and respect. The new modernization theory goes beyond

the post-materialist theory in emphasizing the role of effective governance. Efficient

institutional mechanisms will both prevent crimes before they happen and prosecute

them after they occur.

Like all its previous versions of modernization, the new version of modernization

theory has a universal undertone—that all nations go through the similar developmen-

tal process resulting in the similar changes in crime patterns (Groves & Newman,

1989). In other words, the theory ignores or downplays the roles of historical specific-

ity, the cultural tradition, and political contexts of nations. Developing nations with

different cultural traditions, however, are modernizing in substantially different his-

torical and situational contexts from the developed nations, and they are doing so from

each other. These contextual variations may result in having different effects on homi-

cide rates.

To amend this, we incorporate the insight of cultural/regional theory (Adler, 1983;

Cao, Cullen, & Link, 1997; Ortega, Corzine, Burnett, & Poyer, 1992; Sampson, 2013)

into the insight of the new modernizations theory. Regional/cultural explanations of

homicide have a long history (see Pridemore, 2002, for a detailed discussion). Even

though there is little agreement over the exact mechanisms of how the regional differ-

ences may affect crime patterns (cf. Blau & Blau, 1982; Huff-Corzine, Corzine, &

Moore, 1986; Stark, 1987), research on homicide in the United States has consistently