Golf's drive for green veers into the rough.

• Position: Professional golf-management program - Brief Article

Jerry Hogge directs the professional golf-management program at Methodist College in Fayetteville. He received a bachelor's in physical education from Elon College in 1968 and a master's in exercise physiology from University of Tennessee in 1969 and, before helping create Methodist's program in 1988, was golf director at Canaan Valley Resort in West Virginia. He discussed National Golf Foundation research that showed a 27.2% increase in the number of Tar Heel golf courses between 1990 and 2000.

BNC: Has the golf boom cooled?

Hogge: In 1989, a National Golf Foundation report said we needed to open a course every day through the year 2000 to keep up with demand nationwide. I don't know where they got the numbers, but, as a result, we had golf courses going up on every corner. At the same time, the industry has been relatively flat, at about 26.5 million golfers, and only 6 million play about every week. So, yes, there's a cooling off.

How does that affect the industry?

Lots of courses are up for sale. Sellers typically want 10 times net or three times gross revenues. Buyers are trying to give seven to eight times net, so you've got a gap there. Last year, one course listed for $1.5 million. Now it's listed for $875,000. People who understand the business are sitting back, waiting for the market to come to them. It's a buyer's market.

How do you gauge whether a place has too many courses?

In the fee-paying sector, the break-even point for a course is about 40,000 rounds a year, and a lot of public facilities in North Carolina are nowhere near that. There's another level of super-exclusive private clubs like Eagle Point in Wilmington and Old Chatham in the Triangle where you don't want to play more than 10,000 to 12,000 rounds. They'll survive because there's plenty of money behind them in initiation fees and dues.

Which places are overbuilt?

The National Golf Foundation says Wilmington is one of the most overbuilt in the nation. I was shocked. But when you look at it, going up and down U.S. 17, north and south, there are a lot of courses there and not that many people. Pinehurst also has a lot of courses -- 30-some in the region -- and there's certainly no down time there. So there's more to it than the number of courses. A place like Pinehurst is trying to reach only 1% to 2% of the golfers, not the masses.

Are course owners making money?

UNC did a study showing a construction cost per green of about $100,000, or $1.8 million for a course...