Globalization of disaster: trends, problems and dilemmas.

• Author: Alexander, David
• Position: CAPSTONE ESSAY

After the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 donor countries subscribed to post-disaster relief appeals so copiously that all the money could not be spent quickly enough to justify the reasons for which it was donated. For other contemporary disasters, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, there was an alarming dearth of funds and a general failure to respond to international relief appeals. This paradox neither illustrates that the world is becoming more generous nor demonstrates the opposite. It does, however, highlight one of the many contrasts inherent in current approaches to disaster. As worldwide involvement in the relief and mitigation of catastrophe deepens and becomes more complex, so the approach becomes more fragmentary in some respects, particularly those that relate to global security strategies, and more uniform in others, especially in terms of where the international political system directs its limited attention.

Over the last half-century the massive growth of worldwide travel and telecommunications has brought what were once essentially regional and local problems onto the world stage. In considering such momentous changes, this article surveys the global pattern of catastrophes and offers an analysis of modern systems of emergency preparedness and processes of disaster relief, with particular attention to the problems of creating resilience and the moral and practical dilemmas of prevention and response. First it examines the global impact of disasters with respect to changes in societal vulnerability and growing imbalances in economic development. Next, it considers mass communications in relation to the symbolic significance of disasters and the patterns of donation to relief appeals. It then looks critically at the logistical and organizational aspects of humanitarian relief, with particular attention to major events, such as the Atlantic hurricanes of September 2005 and South Asia earthquake of October 2005, and what they reveal about the international community's policies and practices regarding aid. Subsequently, the article considers disaster mitigation in relation to world economic trends and the changing structure of global financial power. It then examines the current international policy frameworks for catastrophe mitigation and the prospects for achieving positive change in the future.

THE GLOBALIZATION OF MODERN DISASTERS

In physical terms global disasters have been a recurrent and integral part of Earth history, as periodic mass extinctions have resulted from the "global winter" caused by gigantic volcanic eruptions or the impact of large extraterrestrial bodies. But because the geological timescale on which such events occur is so much longer than the one on which human lives are measured, these events are too rare to fall under the remit of an article about the globalization of disaster. (1) Moreover, it has taken the better part of two and a half millennia to appreciate the significance of major cataclysmic natural events. First, the form of the earth as a celestial globe had to be understood; second, the laws of modern physics had to be established, especially regarding the force of gravity; third, the age of the Earth had to be rolled back far enough to permit some understanding of the magnitude and frequency of exceptional events; and finally a robust geophysical explanation of seismicity, volcanism and the general circulation had to be worked out. Hence a proper understanding of the physical underpinnings of natural disaster only emerged in the mid 20th century. (2) It has contributed immeasurably to worldwide consciousness of major natural disasters, but much less to understanding of the key problem of vulnerability, which some scholars regard as a far greater determinant of disaster risk than the existence of hazards themselves. (3)

In terms of human perception, prior to the 20th century the event closest to a global disaster was probably the Portuguese earthquake of 1755. Tsunami waves reached the shores of North America and the Caribbean. At the same time, the destruction of Lisbon, the power center of a thriving commercial empire, by earthquake, fire and tsunami and the violent death of 60,000 of its inhabitants sent shock waves through the intelligentsia of Europe and abruptly threw the Enlightenment into a darker phase of pessimism and foreboding. (4) Yet although it was a significant marker in the history of Western thought, the Lisbon earthquake can hardly be regarded as a "global" disaster: It had no discernable effect on Asia. (5) Another major event of this period in Europe was the 1783 eruption of the Icelandic volcano Laki, which led to widespread death from famine, as there was then no international relief system to come to the rescue--indeed, there was hardly any mechanism for the rapid transmission of news from one country to another. (6)

In terms of the impact of logistical technology, the ability to travel and communicate rapidly over long distances, there are no parallels with the modern era. Yet the Baroque period (roughly 1650-1750) offers some interesting analogies to the current epoch. Both are characterized by the tension of opposites, which has acted as a stimulus to intellectual and technological development. (7) Both are distinguished by the polarization of wealth and, as a result, by social unrest. In the modern age absolutism may have disappeared--in most places--but oligarchies have largely replaced it. (8) Global power may have taken on a different form, but it is as highly structured as it was in the 18th century.

We tend to regard the modern world as being dominated by technology: the ability to fly, speak on the telephone, watch images on a screen and receive news by satellite in real time from anywhere in the world. However, we would do well to remember that a large proportion of the world's population is still excluded from the benefits of science. It is estimated that half the population has never used a telephone. One-fifth has no access to electricity The average value of a family home worldwide is only about one thousand dollars, while conversely the 360 wealthiest men and women control half of the world's monetary resources. (9) This is the "democratic absolutism" of the new Baroque era, and we should beware of generalizations that are expected to cover a world that is as deeply divided now as it was in the 18th century (10)

These reflections suggest that the globalization of disasters is not an entirely new phenomenon, or at least that it has antique roots. (11) However, over the last half-century it has acquired a particular significance in terms of various facets, which can be summarized as follows:

(a) The growth of information and communications technology and the mass ownership of receiving devices have enabled graphic descriptions and images of human suffering in disasters to be disseminated throughout the world with minimal delay. This has engendered the sense of participating in disaster and has greatly increased the common stock of knowledge of catastrophic events. Moreover, it is much more difficult than in the past for disasters in remote places to go unobserved and unrecorded.

(b) Along with mass communications, rapid global travel has enabled the international community to respond quickly and--at least in theory--effectively to disasters when they occur. The existence of an apparatus capable of mounting the required responses is a function of the growth of the world relief system, in large measure represented by the UN system, the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and major non-governmental organizations such as Oxfam. (12)

(c) The first half of the 20th century saw the globalization of conflict, while the second half was marked by the transformation of this into regional and national proxy wars influenced by the major power blocs. This process has been instrumental in breeding "complex emergencies" characterized by political, military, social and economic breakdown. Although the phenomenon is age-old, the full recognition of complex emergencies for what they are had to wait until the 1990s, a period of confusion in international relations and growing moral crisis in humanitarian assistance. (13) Scorched earth tactics and total war have their antecedents in classical times, if not earlier. They emerged as a modern phenomenon in the Iberian campaigns of Napoleon in the first decade of the 1800s, but the ingenuity and ruthlessness with which they have been employed in modern times is unprecedented in history. (14) This has both exacerbated natural catastrophes and created disasters in their own right. The twenty-five complex emergencies that exist in the world in the mid-2000s are all regional disasters of global significance to the international community. (15)

(d) The occurrence of conflict and exercise of power have increased global vulnerability to disasters and the international community has sought to respond to this by developing strategies of disaster reduction. These have increasingly become bound up with economic development, which is the only secure means of providing the resources to create and maintain resilience against the effects of calamity at the local level. How this is to be achieved, what "sustainable disaster reduction" means and why it has not enjoyed more success have been the subject of vigorous debate among development specialists and diplomats. (16)

These trends have complex implications and ramifications, not least because they are interconnected. Hence, the following sections will subject them to a critical analysis in order to reveal some of the subtleties and paradoxes that they engender. As a preliminary step, it is opportune to summarize the current state of the world with regard to disasters.

A DANGEROUS WORLD

Averages have little meaning in disaster statistics. (17) Annual death tolls in calamity appeared to have fallen from a mean of 140,000 in the late...