Global Trends 2005: A Transformed World.

• Author: Bullington, J.R.
• Position: Periodical review

GLOBAL TRENDS 2005: A Transformed World

http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf

U.S. National Intelligence Council

Reviewed by J. R. Bullington

The National Intelligence Council--a body created to coordinate, and sometimes make public, the work of the 16 members of the "U.S. Intelligence Community"--has released its fourth quadrennial report assessing "how key global trends might develop" over the next 15-20 years to influence events and shape the world of the future. It is avowedly "not meant to be an exercise in prediction," but rather a means of "opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss" and of identifying "opportunities and potentially negative developments that might warrant policy action."

This 120-page report paints an overall picture of declining American dominance in an increasingly multipolar system marked by the rise of China, India, and other countries as well as strengthened roles for several types of nonstate actors such as religious groups. The shift of relative economic power from West to East will continue, the report maintains, and global economic growth together with a population increase of 1.2 billion will strain energy, food, and water resources.

Moreover, the potential for armed conflict in the greater Middle East will grow, as will opportunities for mass-casualty terrorist attacks with weapons of mass destruction. All of the foregoing trends are seen as "relative certainties."

Some key uncertainties identified in the report include:

* Whether a transition away from oil and gas is completed during the 2025 timeframe.

* Whether mercantilism stages a...