Getting Away With Murder: Homicide Clearance by Arrest in Chicago and Its Community Areas

• DOI: 10.1177/1088767920941563
• Date: 01 May 2021
• Published date: 01 May 2021
• Author: Joseph Ferrandino
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/1088767920941563

Homicide Studies

2021, Vol. 25(2) 164 –188

© 2020 SAGE Publications

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/1088767920941563

journals.sagepub.com/home/hsx

Article

Getting Away With Murder:

Homicide Clearance by

Arrest in Chicago and Its

Community Areas

Joseph Ferrandino1

Abstract

This work explores the decline in murder clearances through arrest in Chicago from

1965 through 2015, specifically focusing on the most recent time period since 2001.

The findings suggest that clearance by arrest has decreased significantly, that elapsed

time is a limited factor in clearing more murders through arrest and that factors

associated with clearance by arrest in Chicago have changed over time. These results

lead to a discussion on the missing variance that cannot explain murder clearance

by arrest as well as future research areas that can explore why many murderers in

Chicago are increasingly escaping the justice system.

Keywords

Chicago, homicide, clearance, policing, arrest, homicide clearance factors

Introduction

Murder1 is a part of life in Chicago, and has been for a long time. In the 61 years between

1957 and 2017, 38,950 people were murdered in Chicago, an average of 639 per year

ranging from 296 in 1957 to 970 in 19742. The average annual murder rate in Chicago

between 1985 and 2014 was 22.5 compared to 14.7 for all other cities with at least 1 mil-

lion people over the same period (FBI, n.d.). In 2016, Chicago experienced 765 murders,

17.9% higher than New York City and Los Angeles combined (628 total murders),

despite having 360% fewer residents. Nationally, murder clearance percentages have

1Ferris State University, Big Rapids, MI, USA

Corresponding Author:

Joseph Ferrandino, Director of the School of Criminal Justice, Ferris State University, 1349 Cramer

Circle, BIS 506, Big Rapids, MI 49307, USA.

Email: josephferrandino@ferris.edu

941563HSXXXX10.1177/1088767920941563Homicide StudiesFerrandino

research-article2020

Ferrandino 165

declined from around 90% in the 1960’s to about 60% at the turn of the century (Litwin,

2004; Riedel, 2008; Riedel & Jarvis, 1999). The same trend is seen in Chicago as the

murder clearance percentage through arrest3 was 91.7% (93.9% overall clearance) in

1965 and 57.7% in 1995 (Block et al., 2005); by 2005 just 195 of the 448 murders were

cleared (43.5%). Thus, murder clearance has declined precipitously over time, limiting

the deterrent effects of arrest, leaving many victims without justice, and rendering soci-

ety less safe because those capable of murder remain free in communities across the

country (Mancik et al., 2018; Ousey & Lee, 2010; Riedel & Boulahanis, 2007; Riedel &

Jarvis, 1999; Riedel & Rinehart, 1996).

Surprisingly, in-depth empirical research into homicide clearance in general is only

about two decades old despite the attention homicide generally receives (starting with,

as examples: Borg & Parker, 2001; Puckett & Lundman, 2003; Regoeczi et al., 2000).

Most of this early research focused on the characteristics of homicide clearance rather

than exploring its decline (Xu, 2008). The current study explores the changes in mur-

der clearance through arrest in Chicago and its 77 officially defined Community Areas

since the turn of the century in light of its relatively high volume of murders. This

research focuses on three questions: (1) whether homicide clearance by arrest in

Chicago has declined significantly over time, and if so, to what degree; (2) what

impact does time have on the ability to clear older cases through arrest; and (3) what

factors, at the Community Area level, significantly explain homicide clearance by

arrest between 2001 and 2015?

What Is Known About Homicide Clearance in Chicago

Over Time

Perhaps no other city, sadly, has had as much homicide research conducted on it as

Chicago. A more limited yet specific body of literature on homicide clearance in the

Windy City also exists. This research largely derives from the existence and availabil-

ity of a database containing information on all Chicago homicides that occurred

between 1965 and 1995 created by Block et al. (2005), though other databases have

also been utililized in a few studies. This literature is summarized below.

Riedel and Rinehart (1996) studied Chicago clearance rates for all homicides

between 1987 and 1991. In this study, a cleared case was one with complete informa-

tion included for the offender’s age, race and gender, that is, an identified offender.

The main findings were that victim gender, age, race, and weapon type used on their

own were not significant predictors of a homicide being cleared in Chicago over the

5-year period. By contrast, when a murder was part of another felony, it was uncleared

58% of the time, compared to 10% of murders that were not part of another felony. In

this work, a felony circumstance for the murder was defined as the murder occurring

during commission of another felony (e.g., robbery or rape) while a non-felony cir-

cumstance was defined as a murder being the crime committed (i.e., arguments,

drunken brawls). The authors concluded that victim characteristics did not affect the

probability that a homicide would be cleared in Chicago, an outcome that was related