Geopolitical risks when there's no cooperation.

• Author: Bremmer, Ian
• Position: Interview

A world without a single country or group of countries to manage the global order may find it harder to cooperate on transnational problems, increasing the risk of international conflict. The Journal of International Affairs talked to Ian Bremmer, the president and founder of Eurasia Group, about current and future threats to international stability.

Does Trump's America First approach make a G-Zero world more likely and more dangerous?

The G-Zero world was coming long before Donald Trump got into politics. But with Trump's election, it arrived more quickly and suddenly than expected, while provoking a strong international reaction.

Before Trump, I did think that the United States would voluntarily "give up" some of its influence as a reaction to failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and because leading globalization all these years has left a large part of the American population with too little to show for it. But electing an assertively America First president really was a surprise and heralded an abrupt and premature end to Pax Americana.

Will China start to take more responsibility for world problems?

Yes, it will, but only in the economic sphere. China has seen from the United States how costly and often ineffectual it is to try to be the world's policeman, and would rather stay out of that game all together (except when it comes to their own backyard).

But China is ready to shoulder more economic leadership. This is seen in its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership free trade agreement that will be the default trade architecture in the region, its proposed (and highly ambitious) One Belt, One Road initiative, and its establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as a rival to the Washington-based IMF and World Bank.

What are the possible scenarios that would make 2018 a year of geopolitical depression?

Living in a G-Zero world means living in a world without any guard rails. We can't respond as well to shocks, and if those shocks hit, that's how you get a geopolitical depression.

Those shocks can come in many forms. It could be a major cyber attack by North Korea or Russia. It could be a military flare up in the Strait of Hormuz between the United States and Iran that escalates. Or it could be a big terror attack on U.S. soil.

A year ago, significant global military confrontation wasn't really thinkable. And while it's still not likely, it's now at least plausible.

What happens to Russia and the...