Selling school taxes and bond issues to a generationally diverse electorate: lessons from Florida referenda.

• Author: MacManus, Susan A.

Can the old conventional wisdom about gaining voter approval of local education-related tax and bond proposals be relied on in jurisdictions with larger-than-average senior citizen populations?

In the past five years, one-quarter of the school systems across the U.S. failed in their quests to sell bonds or raise taxes, according to a survey of 85 systems by the National School Boards Association. While bond issues and tax levies always have been a hard sell with taxpayers, hundreds of school boards nationwide recently have found themselves in an increasingly tough - and often futile - fight to win passage of fund-raising initiatives.

The failure rate has been even higher in Florida. In 1995, voters in six of eight counties located throughout the state and at both ends of the political spectrum defeated education-earmarked local option sales tax propositions. Florida's recent experiences have clearly shown that campaigns designed to sway the public to vote for higher taxes or bond sales must be conducted differently in age-diverse jurisdictions, particularly those with larger-than-average senior citizen populations.

This article takes a close look at exit surveys conducted by the author among voters in Hillsborough County (Tampa), Florida, who rejected a half-cent sales tax earmarked to education in 1995 but passed a "community investment tax" that included schools in 1996. A comparison is made of the campaign strategies used in the two referenda and in school tax and bond votes elsewhere across the U.S. The study is designed to provide better insights into who votes how and why and to explore what sales tactics work in a television-dominated, antigovernment era. Some important lessons for other school districts contemplating a tax referendum are drawn from the analyses.

Age Trends in Florida

In Florida, the nation's "grayest" state, residents 65 and older make up almost 19 percent of the total population and nearly one-fourth of the voting age population. They make up even higher percentages of registered and actual voters in many areas. The 25-44 year old age group also has grown considerably in recent years (up from 22 percent in 1970 to 29 percent in 1995), attracted to Florida by employment opportunities, sun, surf, and sand. The burgeoning school-age offspring of this group have strained the facilities and finances of many school districts. The problem is expected to worsen during the next 10 years. There will be a 21 percent increase in the 10-19 year old age group by 2008, according to projections reported in the governor's FY 1998 budget. Already overcrowded classrooms and facilities will not hold this mushrooming population.

Solving the problem will not be easy. Florida, one of the nation's most fiscally conservative, antitax states, is one of seven states with no personal income tax (constitutionally prohibited). Its voters have a long history of rejecting new revenue sources and rate increases. The last major new revenue source approved by the electorate was the state lottery in 1986. Ironically, the lottery, which initially was heavily touted as a cure-all for educational funding woes, has become one of the biggest deterrents to voter approval of local education-related tax and bond proposals. The public is angry that lottery funds have been substituted for, rather than used to enhance, general revenue funds expended on education.

Conventional Wisdom

Conventional wisdom gleaned from publications by groups like the National Conference of State Legislatures,(1) the National Education Association,(2) and others is that referenda have the best chance of passing where

* taxes other than property taxes are submitted for voter approval;

* the purposes to which the increased revenues will go are clearly detailed or earmarked and explained to the public;

* the proposed tax is a temporary one;

* a strong coalition consisting of the business community, education groups, and policymakers demonstrates support for the proposal and funds a campaign to support it;

* an existing tax is increased rather than a new one proposed;

* the tax is structured so as to permit more of it to be passed on, or exported, to nonresidents (i.e., tourists, commuters, out-of-town business traffic);

* the election is held "off-cycle" to yield lower voter turnout overall but proportionately higher turnout of supporters, especially those with a school connection;

* avoidance, or prevention, themes are easier sells than reactive themes; and

* preelection public opinion surveys are good predictors of how the public will vote.

New conventional wisdom, extracted from tactics used by school districts across the U.S. over the past two years to promote passage of tax and bond referenda, is that

* offering senior citizens exemptions from higher property taxes makes them less antagonistic toward tax proposals,

* including technology in proposals is a good strategy to sway voters in the computer age,

* it is often necessary to try and try again - to keep putting the same issue before the public and eventually the voters will be convinced that the money is really needed, and

* scolding the voters after they reject a proposal will shame them into voting for a tax hike proposal the next time around.

Many school districts, including Hillsborough County, have learned the hard way, however, that much of this conventional wisdom - old and new - is not very wise in reality.

A Tale of Two School Tax Votes

On September 12, 1995, 60 percent of Hillsborough County voters rejected two half-cent sales tax proposals: one earmarked to school construction and technology and the other to public safety. Each was presented as a single-purpose proposition. Just one year later, voters endorsed a 30-year half-cent sales tax to be shared by the county, its municipalities, and the school board - one multipurpose proposition. The 1996 Community Investment Tax (CIT), designed to fund public infrastructure, school construction, and a community stadium, passed by a 53 percent to 47 percent vote.

The 1995 Referenda

Preelection surveys by local newspapers predicted that the school tax (Exhibit 1) would pass easily. Those surveys projected that the strongest support would come from persons with some tie to the public school system (e.g., a child enrolled in public school), women, less-affluent individuals, recent immigrants from other states and lifetime residents, Democrats, and younger voters. School officials fully expected the off-cycle election, with nothing but the two tax proposals on the ballot, to be a low-turnout election dominated by school employees and supporters.

Election day brought a surprise. Turnout was 22.6 percent...