GAS AND POWER: LNG exporters may pause in race to supply Asia
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/oet.12225 |
| Date | 01 February 2015 |
| Published date | 01 February 2015 |
GAS AND POWER
LNG exporters may pause in race to supply Asia
Asia’srapidly growing natural gas markets haveattracted
scores of proposals for liqueed natural gas (LNG)
export terminals aimed at cashing-in on what many
see as a booming market. e recent fall in global
oil prices, however, may cause some of these projects
tobepostponedasmostcontractpricesofLNGare
linkedtothoseofoil.ehighcostofliquefactionand
regasication– along with the expensive gas carriers
that transport the liqueed gas –means that a high gas
price is needed. To achieve a suciently high gas price
to make many current schemes economic, a sustained
crude oil price of $85– 95/bbl would probably be needed.
Meeting demand
With little or no economic g rowth in Europe and rising
gasproductionintheUS,themaingrowthmarketfor
LNGimportsisAsia:andJapan,SouthKorea,China,
India, and Taiwan in particular (see Ta bl e D ) . Mo r eo v e r,
Asian countries– because of their high dependence on
imports–tend to pay the highest price for LNG. Most
of Asia’s LNG comes at present from Qatar, followed
by Australia. ere are, however, suppliers from many
other parts of the wor ld, including Europe, the Ameri cas,
Africa, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
Much of the next wave of LNG is scheduled to come
from Australia, where a number of oshore elds are
under development and a ne w source has arisen in
the shape of liqueed gas extracted from coal seams
in Queensland, the rst cargo of which was loaded in
January 2015 from the rst phase of the Queensland
Curtis LNG schemeand shipped to Singapore. is year
could see the commissioning of 4.5 bn cfd of new LNG
capacity aimed atmarkets in Asia, most of it in Australia,
Othercountriesplanningtodothesamebetweennow
Table D
Asia: LNG Imports, 2014
Country Volume∗
(bn cfd)
Japan 11.5
South Korea 5.2
China†2.4
India 1.7
Taiwan 1.7
Others 0.5
Total 23.0
∗Based on contracts operating in 2013
†Excluding Hong Kong
Totals rounded
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy,2014
Table E
LNG Projects Targeting Asia, 2015-2017
Project Country Capacity On-Stream
(mn cfd)
Australia Pacic Australia 590 2015
Donggi Senoro Indonesia 275 2015
Gladstone Australia 1,025 2015
Gorgon Australia 2,050 2015
Queensland Curtis Australia 560 2015
Total 2015 4,505
Australia Pacic-2 Australia 590 2016
Icthys Australia 1,105 2016
Sabine Pass US 1,185 2016
Wheatstone Australia 1,170 2016
Total 2016 4,050
Arrow Energy Australia 525 2017
Cove Point US 755 2017
Greater Sunrise Australia 460 2017
PNG Papua New Guinea 1,025 2017
Prelude Australia 475 2017
Sabine Pass-2 US 1,185 2017
Total 2017 4,425
Capacities and dates subject to revision
Totals rounded
Source: Oil/Asian press
and 2017 are the US, Papua New Guinea, andIndonesia
(see Tab l e E) .
Delays likely
Further countries, including Canada, Russia, Iran, and
Nigeria, plan to start exporting LNG to Asia aer 2017:
and additional export terminals are planned by sev-
eral existing suppliers, notably Australia and the US.
Not all of them will be built, however. Others will
bedelayed.isispartlybecauseoffallingglobalgas
andoilprices,butalsotherearejusttoomanyexport
terminals planned in relation to the likely growth in
demand in Asia for imports. In Canada, another prob-
lem has arisen for would-be developers of LNG export
terminals: local opposition to large-scale energy projects
from groups objecting to their environmental impact
or from those demanding a bigger share of the wealth
these schemes create. Many LNG schemes suer from
costoverrunsandsomemayfailasaresultofthis.
At present the brightest prospects appear to be for
schemes sited the closest to Asia, many of which are in
Austral ia.
© 2015 John Wiley& Sons Ltd
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