Gary forecast 2012.

• Author: Coffin, Donald A.
• Position: Statistical data

The recession that began in December 2007(1) had a larger impact on employment in Northwest Indiana (-6.6 percent) than it did in the nation (-5.3 percent); Indiana fared somewhat worse than did our region (a 7.9 percent job loss statewide), as shown in Table l. (2) But while employment rose slightly in Indiana after the recession's trough, it continued to fall significantly in our region, declining by an additional 8,100 jobs between June 2009 and September 2011 (an additional 3.1 percent loss). Unlike the nation and the state, the recovery (such as it is) has not even begun to take hold. Figure 1 shows these changes graphically, with total non-farm employment indexed to January 1990.

Since the national economy passed its trough, employment losses in Northwest Indiana have been concentrated in two industries:

Table 1: Employment Changes During and After the Recession, December 2007 to September 2011 Indicator Northwest Indiana Indiana U.S. Total Non-Farm 283,600 3,015,700 138,875,000 Employment, December 2007 Change in -18,600 -236,800 -7,350,000 Employment, 12/2007 to 6/2009 Percent Change -6.6% -7.9% -5.3% Total Non-Farm 265,000 2,778,900 131,525,000 Employment, December 2009 Change in -8,100 45,300 -467,000 Employment, 6/2009 to 9/2011 Percent Change -3.1% 1.7% -0.4% Total Non-Farm 256,900 2,825,200 131,058,000 Employment, September 2011 I Change in -26,700 -190,500 -7,817,000 Employment, 6/2009 to 9/2011 Percent Change -9.4% -6.3% -5.6% 1. Manufacturing: It has lost 3,200 jobs, or 9.4 percent, since the trough--nearly as many jobs as were lost during the decline phase of the recession; the steel industry alone has lost that many jobs between June 2009 and September 2011 (-18.9 percent), after losing only 300 jobs during the nationwide downturn.

2. Retail Trade: It has lost 2,500 jobs since June 2009 (7.4 percent), following a loss of 3,500 jobs from December 2007 to June 2009.

While the Northwest Indiana economy also lagged the nation in the recoveries from the 1990 and 2001 recessions (with employment declines of 1.4 percent in the early phases of the recovery from the 1990 recession and 2.3 percent early in the 2002-2003 recovery period), the more recent performance of the local economy has been noticeably worse. The continuing decline in retail trade was a distinctive feature of the previous periods as well.

When and Where Will the Recovery in Northwest Indiana Take Hold?

The continuing decline in employment in Northwest Indiana is in large part a consequence of the weakness of...