The Future of Low-Birthrate Populations.

• Author: Serow, William J.

In a real sense, this volume is a logical extension of the author's earlier book |2~, which warned that continued population increase in industrialized countries would threaten their quality of life. This book is designed to examine the consequences of the fact that "... fertility in |these~ countries has begun to follow the course we advocated ..." (xiii). Day argues that these fertility changes and their demographic consequences (aging, potential population decline) are inevitable and that what are needed are both policies to adjust to them and an appreciation of their inherent benefits.

The book begins with a review of the current demographic situation in the industrialized world and follows with a chapter on the probable future course of fertility and mortality. The following two chapters are those which will be of greatest interest to economists, dealing with the financing and provision of health and related care for the elderly and the economic and labor market aspects of the new demography. The final three chapters deal with demographic and non-demographic policy alternatives as well as "compensations" (environment and others) associated with the allegedly immutable change. The geographical focus is somewhat variable, but is noteworthy for its exclusion of Japan and other non-European populations with an apparently similar demographic present and future.

Day makes the important point that concern with the macroeconomic and social effects of population aging must recognize that chronological age is, in and of

itself, not a valid marker for potential economic, health or behavioral problems. Yet, until something other than chronological age can be developed as an alternative marker for pension or (in the U.S. context) publicly funded health insurance eligibility, the prospective effects of population aging will continue to be denominated in the context of chronological age.

Throughout the book, Day takes a decidedly long-run perspective, which, in the context of trying to provide an alternative to the "alarmist" point of view is quite appropriate. The inherent difficulty in taking this position, though, in a work which does focus on policy questions, is the basic incongruity of this time horizon with the much shorter one which is at least now so predominate among those who develop and implement policy. It is comparatively easy for the academic observer to argue for long-term gain at the expense of short-term pain; it is much more...