Fred Kennedy.

Fred Kennedy was the first director of the Space Development Agency. Prior to that, he was the director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's tactical technology office. He addresses the next 100 years of space.

Over the past 60 years, we have wrung almost every scrap of available performance out of multi-stage chemical rockets and it's still just barely sufficient to get us to escape velocity. Had this particular energy barrier been easier to hop over, it's possible that, by now, we would have had a booming and diverse cislunar (or cis-Jupiter) economy--with humans on the Moon, Mars, the asteroids, perhaps even expeditions to the outer solar system. But, given the difficulties we've encountered, humanity's efforts to date have primarily focused on communications, remote sensing of the Earth--often for national security purposes--and robotic exploration of the solar system and wider universe. Since 1972, human exploration has been confined to low-Earth orbit.

Given this, what trajectory can we expect the space community--including defense, as well as its civil and commercial counterparts--to follow over the coming decades?

Transformation is coming. It may be slower than we would have liked--we're an impatient race--but there are signs suggesting that space is about to undergo a phase change. And all of the markers are coming out of the private sector. This next decade, 2020 to 2030, will be pivotal.

Today's issues in space, which include debris mitigation in an era of looming mega-constellations, spectrum allocation in an increasingly crowded radio frequency environment, and space traffic management, all have analogues in the air domain. Why we're still debating the utility of regulation in these arenas is not simply because of government's penchant for stifling progress with bureaucracy--it's also an indication that space really is hard, and the transition from effectively independent fiefdoms such as communications; positioning, navigation and timing; intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; science; and human exploration has, to date, proceeded at a glacial pace.

This is about to change. Within 10 years, we can expect to see routine, inexpensive access to Earth orbit and sub-orbit, supplied by multiple companies. Reusable chemical rockets will drive down the cost of launch, and small boosters--both reusable and expendable--will benefit from mass-production techniques which will make them competitive for small packages...