Fort Wayne forecast 2023.

• Author: Blakeman, Rachel

As the second-largest city in the state, Fort Wayne is not immune to the curious alignment of current economic pressures, namely uncomfortably high inflation coupled with near record-low unemployment.

In September, the Fort Wayne metro area--consisting of Allen, Wells and Whitley counties--had a non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 2.0% according to Indiana Department of Workforce Development data, compared to 2.2% statewide and 3.3% nationally. The Fort Wayne metro has enjoyed "full employment," i.e. an unemployment rate below 5%, since October 2020, with the pandemic low of 1.4% in December 2021. In other words, the lack of available workers to fill open positions remains ever present with no obvious end in sight.

In contrast, inflation, especially for food and energy, continues to weigh on the local, state and national economies alike. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Midwest Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed piped gas service up 17.4% in October, as compared to 12 months prior, while food at home, better known as groceries, was up 13.2% in that same time period. These two household essentials are inescapable costs, especially as families and individuals prepare for the winter heating season. While shoppers can make different choices in their grocery cart (think swapping out beef for poultry), natural gas service gives little choice or substitution options.

For the 2023 Fort Wayne outlook, we look at historical trends in the housing market and predictions for the upcoming year's unemployment rate modeled using historical labor market information plus CPI data. This modeling estimates unemployment rates for the Fort Wayne metro at around 2% next year.

Fort Wayne-area housing market

As of this writing, the interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has cracked the 7% threshold, making it the highest it has been in two decades and decreasing the affordability of new home purchases. The Federal Reserve's increased interest rates come as the central bank seeks to curb inflation.

Looking at the housing market as an economic bellwether, we used data from the Upstate Alliance of Realtors (UPSTAR) Multiple Listing Service, serving the seven-county region of Adams, Allen, DeKalb, Huntington, Noble, Wells and Whitley counties.

We created a 10-year time series of monthly data for a variety of relevant data points to understand how the housing market has changed over time and how those numbers are shifting under current conditions...