Fort Wayne forecast 2022.

• Author: Blakeman, Rachel

Our fingers are crossed that this is the last forecast in our lifetime where we need to consider a viral pandemic. Although we have been living this public health and economic crisis for almost two years, its consequences continue to play out in Fort Wayne in new and unexpected ways. This includes shrinking labor force numbers, difficulty filling plentiful open positions, and a widespread desire of workers across the pay scale to balance their professional and personal lives.

For the 2022 outlook, we are using 2020 employment, wages and population data to identify what's ahead. In short, local data does not show a consistent pattern against the state and nation; sometimes it is more favorable and sometimes it underperforms the comparison groups.

Purdue University Fort Wayne's unemployment model for 2022 indicates Fort Wayne's tight labor market will continue into next year, requiring employers to offer more favorable wage and benefits packages to attract needed workers.

Employment and wages

Although the initial pandemic shutdowns were nearly two years ago, data reflecting the pandemic's economic consequence are still coming out. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' average annual wages and job counts via the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) came out in June. The 2020 personal income statistics (which include data about unemployment payments) from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release in November, and 2020's gross domestic product at the local level is set to release in December.

When comparing the 2020 regional private sector employment data from the 11-county northeast Indiana area (1) to a year before, a few key themes emerge, as shown in the Table 1 series:

* Loss of jobs in all 11 counties: The region's employment declined 5.9% between 2019 and 2020, reflecting a loss of 19,529 jobs. The local loss, as measured by percentage, outpaced Indiana's 5.6% decline but was less than the 6.7% reduction in the U.S.

* Regional wages declined more than $22.5 million: When comparing the 2020 total annual private sector wages to 2019, the greater Fort Wayne region lost nearly $22.6 million in wage payments. Unlike the loss of jobs, this was uneven across the region. The reduction was seen in Adams, DeKalb, Huntington, Kosciusko, LaGrange, Noble and Steuben counties. Allen, Wabash, Wells and Whitley counties increased. Neither the state nor nation experienced a wage loss. While the multimillion-dollar decline sounds large, the percentage decline between 2019 and 2020 was fractional at only -0.1%. The increases for the state and nation were essentially flat in percentage terms, at 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively.

* Average private sector wages went up across studied geographies: Despite the loss of workers and the decline in total wages, the average wage (2) went up in all 11 counties, as well as Indiana and the United States. The regional average annual wage increased from $46,028 in 2019 to $48,858 in 2020, a 6.1% increase. Unfortunately for local workers, the state and national averages were above the regional average and had a larger increase from 2019 to 2020. Indiana's 2020 average wage was $52,210, compared to $49,023 in 2019, reflecting a 6.5% jump. The national average increased 8.5%, going from $59,202 to $64,238.

* Number of establishments increased year-over-year: Like the average wage increase, the number of establishments-think of them as locations...