Fort Wayne forecast 2021.

• Author: Blakeman, Rachel, J.D.

For the 2020 forecast, we advised Fort Wayne employers and workers to hope for the best and prepare for the worst due to market uncertainties--think tariffs or an economic slowdown. The uncertainty we had not considered was a worldwide outbreak of a deadly virus. A year ago, no one could predict what was coming on a pathogenic level and its economic effects.

Looking at 2020 and what's to come in 2021, America's economic confidence is key to Fort Wayne's economy. With its dependence on manufacturing for both employment and gross domestic product, (1) Fort Wayne's economic vitality hinges on people purchasing goods made here.

During the state's stay-at-home order, which ran from late March to the beginning of May, the economic effects could be directly attributed to this unprecedented closure as people adjusted their activities and spending accordingly.

Once Gov. Eric Holcomb issued the Back on Track reopening plan, starting with stage 2 on May 4, economic consequences became more diffuse. Two categories of consumers emerged: "shoppers" and "delayers." Shoppers resumed their pre-pandemic activities, such as eating at restaurants, attending sporting events and spending (like buying vehicles, appliances and furniture). Delayers, in contrast, opted to hold on to their money out of health or economic concerns and chose to delay purchases.

Pandemic labor market and unemployment

Now that we are well into the global pandemic with no end in sight, economic trends are starting to emerge at the local level. This information largely reflects the first six months of COVID-19's effects. While the shutdown orders came in late March, (2) effects weren't visible until the April data, save the weekly unemployment data.

The Fort Wayne data show increases for weekly unemployment claims beginning in late March through May, followed by declines over the summer. Figure 1 shows the number of people in the Fort Wayne MSA (3) from January 2019 through August 2020 who were either working (employed) or actively seeking work (unemployed) plus the unemployment rate. Like the rest of the nation, Fort Wayne's unemployment rate spiked in April with nearly 42,000 people out of work, followed by a downward trend.

What about the $600 weekly supplemental unemployment insurance (UI) payments made this spring and summer? How did that affect Fort Wayne? Excellent question, but the data aren't yet available. That will be in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis's 2020 county-level personal income calculations scheduled for release in November 2021. While those enlarged payments felt unjust to some, especially those who continued to work in low-wage essential jobs, that economic lifeline helped recipients and kept...