Fort Wayne forecast 2019.

AuthorBlakeman, Rachel

When Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans visited Fort Wayne in September, he described the U.S. economy's fundamentals of growth as "quite solid" with a healthy labor market, growth in gross domestic product and strong consumer spending. (1) Many of those trends are seen at the local level in Fort Wayne.

As the U.S. economy heads toward 10 years of economic growth, the Fort Wayne Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) of Allen, Wells and Whitley counties continues to enjoy strong economic performance, especially when it comes to the labor market.

Labor market and unemployment

Over about a year and a half, comparing monthly seasonally unadjusted numbers for the Fort Wayne MSA, the labor market has grown by almost 10,000 people; and more interestingly, the number of employed people has grown by nearly 11,000 (see Figure 1), (2) reflecting a 5 percent increase. This growth has all occurred while the number and rate of unemployed has shrunk. This tells us that people who were disengaged from the labor market one month are jumping directly into the labor pool next month as employed, rather than spending much time seeking work without landing a job.

This slack--people who aren't actively looking but who will join the labor force for the right position--could be limiting upward pressure on wages. (3) Average 2018 wage data won't be available until spring, but anecdotal evidence continues to indicate a tight labor market that could be driving up wages in some sectors.

For the unemployment rate, the Fort Wayne MSA and the rest of the counties that make up what is generally known as northeast Indiana have enjoyed full employment (unemployment below 5.0 percent) since April 2015. (4)

Furthermore, the Fort Wayne metro has also enjoyed an unemployment rate below the state's rate for many months in the past four years. Figure 2 shows the number of unemployed, as well as the unemployment rate, since January 2017.

Significant downtown projects underway

Investment in downtown Fort Wayne from both the public and private sectors has been strong in recent years, indicating confidence in the Fort Wayne economy's future, especially as it relates to the urban core. More than $426 million of projects are either recently completed, under construction or under consideration in Fort Wayne's downtown and adjacent neighborhoods (see Table 1).

Skyline Tower, a mixed-use $42 million 12-story high-rise adjacent to the Ash Brokerage headquarters at Skyline Plaza that opened the year...

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