Fort Wayne forecast 2013.

• Author: Stafford, John
• Position: Economy and employment of Metropolitan statistical areas - Statistical data

This forecast article is being prepared just days before the national election (now decided), an event that was dominated by current economic conditions and concern about future prospects.

Let us begin with a review of the Fort Wayne metropolitan area's comparative success in recovering from the Great Recession--at least from an employment perspective.

Last year at this time, the Fort Wayne MSA (Allen, Wells and Whitley counties) had just been identified as leading the nation's top 100 metros in job growth over the prior 12 months. More recently, this area again received attention by a report from Garner Economics LLC for being one of only 23 metro areas (out of 372 nationally) to have outpaced national monthly job growth in each of the past 23 months. (1) The Columbus and Elkhart-Goshen MSAs were the only other Indiana metros to be included in the group. Further analysis by the Community Research Institute indicates that Fort Wayne's streak of outpacing the nation started prior to the report's beginning date of September 2010 (the month national employment began to increase) and continues forward through September of this year-29 consecutive months.

Recent monthly metro employment numbers (2) indicate that the Fort Wayne MSA is nearly back to its pre-recession level from 2007. This is no small feat given the extent of employment losses experienced in 2008 and 2009. Compared with much of Indiana, the Fort Wayne MSA has indeed fared better.

Between September 2007 and September 2012 (the most recent data available at the time this article was written), total nonfarm employment statewide was still down 3.0 percent. Of the 14 metro areas M Indiana for which CES data were available, only the Columbus and Lafayette MSAs had September 2012 employment higher than pre-recession September 2007. The Fort Wayne MSA was within 100 jobs of reaching its September 2007 employment level. As illustrated in Figure 1, the other 11 MSAs still have gaps to close--in some cases, a substantial gap.

FIGURE 1: Nonfarm Employment Change, September 2007 to September 2012 Colubbus 9.8% Lafayette 0.8% Fort Wayne 0.0% Evansville -1.3% Indianpolis-Carmel -2.8% Anderson -3.3% Bloomington -3.4% Terre Haute -3.9% Gary -4.6% Muncie -5.2% South Bend -7.0% Kokomo -8.6% Michigan City-LaPorte -9.9% Elkhart-Goshen -10.9% Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Currant Employment Statistics Note: Table made from bar graph. What has been happening in the Fort Wayne metro...