Fort wayne forecast 2012.

• Author: Stafford, John
• Position: Statistical data

As I began to prepare this review and forecast, the online publication The Fiscal Times reported that the Fort Wayne metropolitan area (MSA)(1) led the top 100 metro areas in the nation in net job growth over the past 12 months. This news was certainly a boost to a community that had been hit hard by the Great Recession. The net increase of 8,000 jobs between September 2010 and September 2011(2) was one of several indicators pointing to a gradual but steady recovery from the low point in the winter of 2009-2010. Major gains were experienced across a wide variety of employment sectors. As illustrated in Figure 1, Fort Wayne also led all Indiana metropolitan areas in job growth during this September to September period, with only the Columbus and Lafayette MSAs even approaching the 3.9 percent increase in employment experienced in Fort Wayne.

Figure 1: Non-Farm Employment Change, September 2010 to September 2011 Fort Wayne 3.9% Columbus 3.0% Lafayette 2.8% Evansville 1.3% South Bend-Mishawka 0.4% Kokomo 0.2% Indianapolis-Carmel -0.3% Terre Haute -0.7% Bloomington -0.7% Gary -0.8% Muncie -1.4% Michigan City-La Porte -1.6% Elkhart-Goshen -1.7% Andelrson -2.0% Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Current Employment Statistics Note: Table made from bar graph. Based on the most recent non-seasonally adjusted unemployment data provided by the Indiana Department of Workforce Development(3) (September 2011), the Fort Wayne MSA is tied with the Indianapolis area for the fourth-lowest unemployment rate among all 16 Indiana metropolitan areas. The current 8.1 percent unemployment rate is a substantial improvement from the 10.4 percent annual average rate for 2010. We must go back to December 2008 to find resident employment in the Fort Wayne MSA as high as the September 2011 level of 195,627. While the Fort Wayne MSA currently represents approximately 7 percent of all statewide employment, the 8,838 net increase in the number of residents employed in the region over the past year represents 24 percent of statewide employment growth.

Another indicator of economic recovery in the Fort Wayne area can be found in the 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) data compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total inflation-adjusted GDP in the Fort Wayne metropolitan area increased 5.2 percent between 2009 and 2010. This was more than twice the rate of growth across all U.S. metropolitan areas (2.5 percent). The news in the manufacturing sector was even...