Fort Wayne forecast 2011.

• Author: Stafford, John

The official end of the recession in June 2009 represented the bottom or "trough" of the economic downturn and from that point on we are, at least theoretically, in the recovery phase. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declarations of recession beginnings and endings depend on many factors in addition to decreases and increases in employment. In fact, it is not unusual for job growth to lag the official end of a recession by a few months. However, at least at the local level, employment change is the most obvious, readily available and tangible indicator that can be used to track the pace of a recovery.

As can be seen in Figure 1, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted employment dropped 7.8 percent in the Fort Wayne MSA (1) from the beginning of this recession (December 2007) to its end (June 2009). This was a loss of 16,800 jobs. The percentage decline in the Fort Wayne area is similar to that experienced statewide but is substantially greater than the percentage of job loss nationally. While June 2009 (the official end of the recession) is used as the turning point in Figure 1, national employment actually reached its low point in December 2009. Locally, July 2009 represented the lowest point in seasonally adjusted monthly employment.

* FIGURE 1: Change in Total Nonfarm Employment during the Recession and from Recovery to Date, 2007 to 1020 December 2007 to June 2009 June 2009 to September 2010 -7.8% 0.7% -7.2% 1.0% -5.3% -0.3% Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. September 2010 data are preliminary. Source: Community Research Institute, using Bureau of Labor Statistics data Note: Table made from bar graph. Manufacturing continues to be a major, if not the dominant, driver of the Fort Wayne area economy. As illustrated in Figure 2, local employment in this sector has been hit particularly hard during this recession, similar to every recession in recent times. The Fort Wayne MSA lost 8,900 manufacturing jobs during the recession. This was nearly 10 percentage points greater than the manufacturing job loss nationally and comparable to that experienced across Indiana.

* FIGURE 2: Change in Total Manufacturing Employment during the Recession and from Recovery to Date, 2007 to 2010 December 2007 to June 2009 June 2009 to September 2010 -23.9% 9.2% -21.7% 3.5% -14.2% -0.9% Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. September 2010 data are preliminary. Source: Community Research Institute, using Bureau of Labor Statistics data Note: Table...