Forest products.

• Author: Morgan, Todd A.
• Position: CHALLENGES AND CHANCES

2015 was a year of challenges and disappointments for wood products markets. New home starts in the U.S. failed to materialize at predicted levels and the Chinese economy's slowdown reduced exports of logs, lumber and other wood products from U.S. and Canadian producers to Asia. The U.S. dollar gained against most currencies, particularly China's and Canada's, making the U.S. a prime destination for wood products and further challenging domestic producers' abilities to sell into weakening domestic and foreign markets. Finally, the Softwood Lumber Agreement (SLA) between Canada and the U.S. expired, causing concern for U.S. lumber producers about Canadian mills flooding the already over-supplied U.S. market.

The Canadian wood products industry is thought by many in the U.S. to be unfairly subsidized by the Canadian and provincial governments, providing timber to mills at below market value. To promote fairer trade and reduce uncertainty caused by disputes, the SLA imposed quotas and tariffs on Canadian lumber imports based on U.S. lumber prices. The expiration of the U.S. and Canadian SLA was of particular concern to Montana lumber producers, who produce many of the same products and species as mills in British Columbia and Alberta, which now have unfettered access to the U.S. lumber market.

Along with these recent national and international hurdles, Montana wood products firms faced the more localized and ongoing challenges of limited log availability and relatively high log costs. Timber harvest in Montana has changed very little since 2009 (See Figure 1). While 2015 lumber prices in the U.S. were about 13 percent...