Foreign-Born Voting Behavior in Local Elections

• Author: Melissa M. Goldsmith,Claudio A. Holzner
• Published date: 01 January 2015
• Date: 01 January 2015
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X14528027
• Subject Matter: Articles

American Politics Research

2015, Vol. 43(1) 27 –58

© The Author(s) 2014

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DOI: 10.1177/1532673X14528027

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Article

Foreign-Born Voting

Behavior in Local

Elections: Evidence

From New Immigrant

Destinations

Melissa M. Goldsmith1 and Claudio A. Holzner1

Abstract

Approximately half of immigrants to the United States are now settling

directly in cities and towns with little prior history of immigration. Because

this dispersed settlement pattern is so recent, we know little about the

political behavior of naturalized citizens in these new immigrant destinations.

This article begins to fill this gap by exploring the determinants of foreign-

born voting in municipal elections using a new dataset that combines official

voting information from the state of Utah with demographic information

about Utah residents from the Utah Population Database (UPDB). We

hypothesize that in addition to individual-level predictors of prior experience

with democratic politics and community attachment, the size of cities and

their form of government will also affect the likelihood that foreign-born

citizens will turn out to vote in local elections. We use multilevel modeling

techniques to test these hypotheses and find that prior experience with

democratic politics, whether in the United States or in their home country,

along with the city-level characteristics of city size and form of government,

are powerful predictors of foreign-born voting in local elections. Moreover,

we find that while large cities experience lower levels of turnout for all

1University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA

Corresponding Author:

Claudio A. Holzner, Department of Political Science, University of Utah, 260 S. Central

Campus Dr, RM 252, Salt Lake City, UT 84112-9152, USA.

Email: claudio.holzner@poli-sci.utah.edu

528027APRXXX10.1177/1532673X14528027American Politics ResearchGoldsmith and Holzner

research-article2014

28 American Politics Research 43(1)

citizens, the negative effect on participation is strongest for foreign-born

citizens.

Keywords

immigrant voting behavior, local elections, new immigrant destinations,

political participation

Immigrant settlement patterns in the United States have changed dramati-

cally during the past two decades. The pull of economic opportunities, afford-

able housing, and immigrant networks are motivating millions of new

immigrants to settle in cities and towns with little or no prior history of immi-

gration. Although traditional immigrant gateway cities like New York,

Miami, and Los Angeles continue to attract the most immigrants, immigrant

populations in metropolitan areas such as Atlanta, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Salt

Lake City, and Seattle have more than tripled in the past two decades. More

immigrants are also settling directly in suburban areas, small towns, and even

rural areas all across the United States (Fortuny, Chaudry, & Jargowsky,

2010; Marrow, 2011; Singer, 2008). Because the change in settlement pat-

terns is relatively recent, most immigrants living in these new gateway com-

munities have not yet naturalized or received much attention from local

political parties and campaigns. However, in the coming decades, many of

these immigrants will become citizens, vote in local and national elections,

and transform the political dynamics of their communities.

This geographic dispersion of immigrants makes understanding the voting

behavior of foreign-born citizens outside of traditional gateway cities more

important than ever. However, we still know relatively little about the voting

behavior of naturalized immigrants living in new destinations. The vast

majority of the research on immigrant political participation has focused on

foreign-born voting in national elections (Bass & Casper, 1999; Pantoja,

Ramírez, & Segura, 2001; Ramakrishnan, 2005) or on immigrant political

participation in large cities within traditional gateway states (e.g., Barreto,

Villarreal, & Woods, 2005; Mollenkopf, Olson, & Ross, 2001; Mollenkopf &

Sonenshein, 2009; Ramakrishnan & Bloemraad, 2008; Wong, 2006).

Although we have learned much from this research, we should not assume

that the same factors that explain immigrant voting at the national level

explains foreign-born voting at the local level. Nor should we assume that the

findings from studies of local elections in cities that have huge immigrant

populations, co-ethnic politicians in positions of power, and organizations

with the capacity and willingness to mobilize immigrants to the polls, apply

Goldsmith and Holzner 29

to new gateway cities and towns that do not have these characteristics. Thus,

the core findings from existing studies about immigrant voting patterns may

not apply to local elections in new destinations, or may ignore factors that are

important outside of traditional gateway cities and states.

To begin to fill this gap, this article analyzes the voting behavior of natu-

ralized citizens in local elections across the state of Utah, which has had one

of the fastest growing immigrant populations in the country since 1990. Our

explanation focuses on three factors. First, prior experience with political

parties and elections is an important determinant of turnout. Prior political

experiences may be especially important for foreign-born citizens who have

more to learn about politics in the United States, and who tend to face more

obstacles to participation than the native-born. Accordingly, we test whether

membership in a political party, prior experience voting in a federal election,

or migration from a democratic country increase the likelihood that immi-

grant citizens will vote in local elections. Second, studies of the general pop-

ulation have found that residents with stronger ties to their communities are

more likely to vote in local elections. Length of residence in a locality and

homeownership are two variables that measure how rooted individuals are in

their communities and are likely to have positive influences on immigrant

turnout. Third, in addition to immigrants’ demographic traits, studies of vot-

ing in local elections have demonstrated that city-level characteristics are

also important in shaping local-level turnout. In particular, these studies dem-

onstrate that city size and the form of government are powerful predictors of

turnout in local elections. We draw on this literature to test whether living in

larger cities or in municipalities with appointed managers, as opposed to

elected mayors, affects the turnout of immigrants.

To analyze those factors that enable or hinder foreign-born voting in local

elections, we combined information from the Utah Population Database

(UPDB), official voter records, and information from over 240 cities and

towns in Utah into a unique new dataset. Because of the multilevel structure

of our data, and because we want to explore whether city-level factors affect

foreign-born citizens differently than native-born citizens, we use multilevel

models to analyze turnout in municipal elections. We find that immigrants’

prior experience with democratic politics, whether in the United States or in

their home country, is one of the most important predictors of foreign-born

turnout in local elections. In addition, we find that immigrant turnout rates

are lower in larger cities and in municipalities with manager forms of govern-

ment. Moreover, in the case of city size, this negative impact on voting is

stronger for foreign-born citizens compared with U.S.-born citizens, suggest-

ing that the large metropolitan areas where most immigrants settle create

obstacles that slow down their political incorporation.