Forecasting Future Crime Rates

• Published date: 01 February 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190215
• Author: Richard Rosenfeld,Mark Berg
• Date: 01 February 2024

https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190215

Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice

2024, Vol. 40(1) 218 –231

© The Author(s) 2023

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DOI: 10.1177/10439862231190215

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Article

Forecasting Future Crime

Rates

Richard Rosenfeld1 and Mark Berg2

Abstract

Despite its importance for testing criminological theories and informing crime control

policy, forecasting crime rates has all but disappeared from criminology. We argue

for a resurgence of crime forecasting in the study of crime trends. As an example of

the value, as well as the challenges, of forecasting, we engage in a forecasting exercise

based on data from New York City. We discuss each of the steps taken to forecast

New York’s violent and property crime rates to 2024, from preparing the data for

reliable analysis, specifying the forecasting model, selecting the forecasting method,

and validating the results. The results of autoregressive integrated moving average

(ARIMA) forecast models show a rise in New York’s violent and property crime rates

in 2022 and 2023 before flattening in 2024. Renewed attention to forecasting can

help to secure the future of the study of crime trends.

Keywords

forecasting, violent crime, property crime, New York City

It is like holding a small candle in a hurricane to see if there are any paths ahead and how

to go forth. But if one cannot light and hold even a small candle then there is only

darkness before us.

Daniel Bell1

When criminologists are asked what will happen to crime rates in the near future, we

are often left speechless. It is not a senseless question. Economists are asked the same

question about economic conditions all the time, and they usually have an answer based

on economic forecasting models. Crime forecasts have never been widespread in crimi-

nology, but they have all but disappeared in recent years.2 The current unpopularity of

1University of Missouri–St. Louis, USA

2The University of Iowa, Iowa City, USA

Corresponding Author:

Richard Rosenfeld, University of Missouri–St. Louis, St. Louis, MO 63121, USA.

Email: richard_rosenfeld@umsl.edu

1190215CCJXXX10.1177/10439862231190215Journal of Contemporary Criminal JusticeRosenfeld and Berg

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