May the force be with you: because the Republicans' costly missile defense system probably won't be.

• Author: Cottle, Michelle
• Position: Republican defense spending policy

Because the Republicans' costly missile defense system probably won't be

On a bright day this June in Sunnyvale, Calif., Republican presidential aspirant Bob Dole explained the nature of the dark storm cloud threatening America's national security: "[A] rogues' gallery of terrorist and aggressive anti-American regimes, I believe, in effect are being encouraged by the administration's attitude, and they are developing or acquiring nuclear and missile technology... Mr. Clinton's opposition to a missile defense is one of the most negligent, short-sighted, irresponsible, and potentially catastrophic policies in history."

Okay, so this isn't the first time a Republican has accused a Democrat of being weak on defense. And ballistic missiles certainly lend themselves to alarming rhetoric. Newt Gingrich displayed this most eloquently at a Stanford symposium last year, when he denounced the Clinton administration's missile defense policy: "The world is dangerous.... Some people are willing to let you die or let you be totally black-mailed. Which team do you want to be on?"

Last March, Dole and Gingrich pushed missile defense even further into the spotlight when they introduced the Defend America Act of 1996. An updated version of Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative, Defend America mandates the deployment of a national missile defense system by 2003. The "highly effective" system--priced somewhere between $31 and $60 billion--would include radar, interceptor missiles, and satellite tracking systems.

The conservative media followed the GOP's lead. New York Times columnist William Safire said the issue "defines the two parties," and a Wall Street Journal roundtable called missile defense "one of the defining issues between Bill Clinton and Bob Dole."

There's only one problem: When the defining issue is defined, the candidates' differences are about as substantive as an episode of "Seinfeld." The Clinton folks want their missile defense system, too, and the president is quick to tell the public how much he's already spending to get it ($3 billion in FY 1996 alone). Unable to upstage the president on this call to arms, Dole has abandoned the issue as a campaign centerpiece, and the Defend America Act has been temporarily tabled.

The "three-plus-three" strategy supported by President Clinton promises a "test-ready" ballistic missile defense system by 1999. At that point, if--and only if--the system is deemed necessary, the three-year deployment phase would begin. Emphasizing that "three-plus-three" could have a system in place within the same time frame as the Defend America Act, Clinton is trumpeting his program as the rational alternative. In an address last May at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy, Clinton criticized the Dole-Gingrich plan for requiring an immediate commitment to deployment by 2003. Such a plan, he said, "would force us to choose now a costly missile defense system that could be obsolete tomorrow."

Responding to Clinton's criticism, GOP leaders in the House drafted a letter strongly accusing the President of downplaying the threat of missile attack. "We strongly encourage you in the future to be absolutely candid with the American people on this vital security issue," they wrote.

Candid with the American public? Fine. Perhaps the discussion should begin with a look at the less-than-illustrious history and current status of the missile defense programs everyone is so eager to bring to the American people.

Insanity Defense

The precursor to ballistic missile defense, the Army's Nike antiaircraft system, emerged during the late 1950s. This system was eventually abandoned as incapable of intercepting any type of air threat. But missile defense development continued through the `60s and `70s. Finally, the Ford administration established the first U.S. anti-ballistic missile system at Grand Forks, N.D. It was maintained for six months, then shut down as cost-ineffective.

In 1983, the granddaddy of all missile defense plans...