In the February 5, 2019 edition of Forbes, U.S. researcher David Trainer painted a gloomy picture of Netflix in a story titled: "Reality is Closing in On Netflix."
Trainer started by saying "that investors are losing patience with Netflix's extraordinary cash flow burn ($13 billion since 2011)," and that "they will not subsidize Netflix's huge cash losses forever." Plus, he said, "Debt investors are not happy either. They've always been more skeptical and assigned Netflix's debt 'junk' ratings since as early as 2015."
Trainer then explained why "Time is running out for Netflix's current business model to work: Netflix needs over 500 million subscribers at $20 per month to justify $350 a share. [Netflix has] to show it can monetize its content in the face of mounting competition." In his view, Netflix currently has 20 competitors.
In terms of monetization, Trainer wrote, "Disney is one of the best when it comes to monetizing. Its content can earn revenues through box office, merchandise, licensing deals, theme parks, and soon, streaming. With its Disney+ service, the firm will throw its full weight (and massive resources) into the streaming ring."
Trainer noted that the "main reason investors are losing confidence is that Netflix's subscriber growth has not generated enough revenue to cover the increase in content spending." Since 2011, he wrote, revenue has increased by $12.6 billion, "which is half the total increase in expenditures over the same time."
Trainer acknowledged that Netflix was one of the first services to offer video streaming, but today it is facing...