For the record: Peter Hart.

• Position: Interview

Peter Hart is the chairman of Peter D. Hart Research Associates and the man the National Journal called "probably" the foremost Washington pollster for the Democratic Party and its centrist candidates." Hart and Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies have been the pollsters for NBC News and The Walt Street Journal since 1989. Hart's firm has represented more than 40 U.S. senators and 30 governors and has worked for the Smithsonian Institution, the Holocaust Memorial Museum and the Kennedy Center.

Stale Legislatures'. Will the economy be the primary factor in the November election?

Peter Hart: As the economy goes, so goes the nation. And so goes the presidential election. The question is, are we coming out of the recession and does the public believe that good times are ahead? The numbers on unemployment alone will not be strong enough for the president's re-election, and he is going to have to rely on direction and perceptions that indeed things are going to get better one way or another. I think the economy is essential, and at this stage it's hard to know if it will favor the Democrats or the Republicans.

SL: Do voters think the country is going in the right direction or off track?

Hart: Only about a third of Americans are saying things are headed in the right direction. And we have essentially been on a negative course for 10 years. There are a few blips here and there, when we killed Osama Bin Laden or when Saddam Hussein was captured. But we haven't had a majority of Americans saying things are headed in the right direction for a consistent period of time in more than 10 years. I think Democrats would be looking and hoping for the right direction numbers in the 35 percent to 40 percent range for Obama to be re-elected. Like George W. Bush, they may be enough for re-election, but psychologically these numbers are far away from the president feeling he has the wind at his back.

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SL: Can you look in your crystal ball and tell us what you think Washington is going to look like after the election?

Hart: The honest answer is, I don't know. What it really comes down to is the economy. A lot has to do with events within the United States and more important maybe internationally. Unlike other elections where you have a firm and fixed sense of how an election will play out, this is an election where there is so much unhappiness with Washington, the Congress, and government that any scenario is possible. There is so...