Flee the Rising Sea? South Florida's Choice of Leadership or Litigation

• Author: Keith W. Rizzardi
• Pages: 173-203

173

Flee the Rising Sea?

South Florida’s Choice of

Leadership or Litigation

Keith W. Rizzardi

Introduction: A Slow-Motion Crisis, Speeding Up .......................................173

I. e Risks Tomorrow: Diminishing Flood Control and Retreat .............175

II. e Reality Today: Deny, Ignore, Delay, or Plan ...................................181

III. e Responsibility to Act: From History to Destiny .............................185

A. What Can We Do? Coastal Defense Inspired by the Everglades ......189

B. Who Can I Sue? e Litigation Conundrum .................................. 194

Conclusion: Urgency, Now........................................................................... 203

Introduction: A Slow-Motion Crisis, Speeding Up

For coastal cities—and for south Florida in particular—rising seas represent

a potential existential crisis. Wh ile uncertainty exists a s to when and how

much our physica l communities a nd ecosystems will change, policymakers

must make hard decisions about the risks ahead. Communities will choose

between action and adaptation, or inaction and litigat ion.

To some ex tent, humanity is making progress in the eort to confront

a frightening future. At the international level, nations have achieved new,

common understandings. Implementing the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),1 a 2015 Conference of the

Parties in Paris set objectives to minimize and mitigate the harms of climate

change.2 Due to melting land-based ice and thermal expansion of the ocean,

1. UNFCCC, First Steps to a Safer Future: Introducing the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change, http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php (last visited

Aug. 22, 2016).

2. Report of the Conference of the Parties on Its Twenty-First Session, Held in Paris From 30 November to 13

December 2015—Addendum, Part Two: Action Taken by the Conference of the Parties at its Twenty-First

Session, Decisions Adopted by the Conference of the Parties, UNFCCC, 21st Sess., U.N. Doc. FCCC/

CP/2015/10/Add.1 (2016), http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf.

* e author extends special thanks to Stephanie Schellhorn-Masonbrink (J.D. 2016, St.

omas University) for her research and editorial assistance.

Chapter 7

174 Climate Justice

rising sea s are among the harmful and recognized consequences of climate

change.3 At the federal level, the U.S. Global Change Research Program

(USGCRP) continues to provide dramatic assessments of the issues.4

Simultaneou sly, the news is frig htening for the next generation, espe-

cially i n Florida, where t he risks cre ated by sea-level r ise are acute. Accord-

ing to a regional vulnerability analysis, with a mere one foot of sea-level

rise, fou r hospitals, 65% of the schools and 71% of t he emergency shelters

in the Florida Keys are vulnerable; power plant properties in Mia mi-Dade

and Browa rd are expos ed; and more than 81 m i of roadway from Miami-

Dade County to Palm Beach County are at elevations below sea level.5 e

upper estimate of t axable property values v ulnerable across the region is

greater than $4 billion at just one foot of sea-leve l rise, with values rising

to more than $31 billion at the 3-ft scenario.6 e fact that these analyse s

occurred at all is a tribute to local leadership, and t he South Florida Cli-

mate Change Compact has successf ully united the local leaders of four

Florida coastal c ounties to engage in planning and dialogue.7 Sti ll, aware-

ness and aspiration a re not enough. In fa ct, Florida has likely underesti-

mated the comi ng catastrophe. Recent scientic studies concluded t hat the

rate of sea-level rise is increasing faster tha n expec ted, and the melting of

ice in Anta rctica mean s that the estimates should be doubled.8 e slow-

motion crisis is speeding up.

Climate justice necessitates climate action. e real question is, action by

whom—the engineers or the lawyers? is chapter explores the next steps

in a dialogue about rising seas, with a focus on south Florida. Part I consid-

ers the magnitude of the risks ahead, oering insights into the many ways

3. UNFCCC, Climate Change Information Sheet 11: Sea Levels, Oceans, and Coastal Areas, http://unfccc.

int/essent ial_background /background_p ublications_h tmlpdf/climat e_change_infor mation_kit/

items/290.php (last visited Aug. 22, 2016).

4. J M. M  ., C C I   U S: T T N

C A. (U.S. Global Change Research Program 2014), http://s3.amazonaws.com/

nca2014/high/NCA3_Climate_Change_Impacts_in_the_United%20States_HighRes.pdf [hereinafter

USGCRP].

5. S F R C C C I M  V

A W G, A   V  S F  S L

R 6–11 (2012), http://www.southeastoridaclimatecompact.org//wp-content/uploads/2014/09/

vulnerability-assessment.pdf.

6. Id. at 6, 9.

7. See, e.g., Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact, Homepage, http://www.southeast-

oridaclimatecompact.org/ (last visited Aug. 22, 2016).

8. Camille von Kaenel, Antarctica Meltdown Could Double Sea Level Rise, S. A., Mar. 31, 2016 (citing

Robert M. DeConto & David Pollard, Contribution of Antarctica to Past and Future Sea Level Rise, 531

N 591 (2016)), http://www.scienticamerican.com/article/antarctica-meltdown-could-double-

sea-level-rise/. See also Doyle Rice, Sea Levels Rising Faster Now an in Past 3,000 Years, USA T,

Feb. 22, 2016.