Flathead County: a matter of perspective.

• Author: Davis, Gregg
• Position: Statistical data

Probably all are painfully aware of the impact the Great Recession had in the Flathead Valley economy. Had the Flathead economy grown at its historical average annual growth rate experienced during the robust part of the decade, 2002-07, total employment in the Flathead today would be over 49,000 jobs. Instead, employment is at just over 37,000, 75 percent of its potential before the Great Recession hit the economy. Still, the Flathead is over 4,000 jobs shy of its 2007 peak employment of more than 41,000 jobs. Economy-wide wages are $57 million shy of their peak in 2008. The private sector bore the brunt of the pain in terms of job and wages lost during the recession. But comparing either gains or losses to the robust growth experienced in the early part of the decade masks the relative position of the economy to growth in other areas.

To see another perspective on where the Flathead economy is in 2011 with respect to other economies, we can compare "where we are now" to "where we would be" if, instead, the economy of the Flathead had followed the path of the Montana and the U.S. economies. For this perspective, we'll assume that the Flathead economy grows at the average annual rates of growth for Montana and the national economy during the 2002-11 period for both employment and total wages. We can then compare where the Flathead economy is in 2011 relative to where it would be if, instead, it had grown at the rates of the Montana and U.S. economies.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Because private and government employment often behave differently during economic downturns, they will be separated.

In Figure 1, actual private employment in the Flathead is compared to what private employment would be if, instead, it had grown at the historical state and national growth rates.

In 2002, private employment in Flathead County was just over 29,000. By 2011, private employment had increased by 12 percent to 32,500. If, instead, private employment in 2002 had grown at the historical Montana and U.S. average annual growth rates for the 2002-11 period, Flathead County would have private employment totaling just 32,000 and 29,000, respectively, in 2011. Despite the plummet in jobs during 2007-2009, overall private employment was still better than if the economy had grown at statewide or national growth rates. It is the same story for private sector wages. In 2002, the Flathead economy had almost $717 million in private wages, and in 2011 ended up with $1.1 billion...